2023-24 NBA Season Preview: Title Contender Tiers

Previewing the 2023-24 season by grouping teams into tiers based how seriously we should take them as threats to win the NBA Finals. This preview includes each team’s projected lineup, deep dives on the outlook for each team, and ceilings and floors for each team this season.

Note: The numbers next to player names represent their ranking on the top 100, to see full top 100 player article, read here: NBA Top 100 Player Rankings

If you prefer to read the team previews broken down by regular season standings, click below to switch over to Regular Season Standings Predictions for both the East and West:

Click where it says “Read Team Preview” for a deep dive on each team.

Tier 10: Have Tankathon.com Bookmarked

Washington Wizards

Detroit Pistons

Portland Trail Blazers

San Antonio Spurs

Houston Rockets

These teams carry zero expectations externally or internally to be competitive this season, and while they will have their frisky moments throughout the year, odds are high that by the end of the season, they’ll be pushing the NBA’s new player participation rules to the limits and refreshing tankathon.com regularly.

30. Washington Wizards

Projected Rotation

G - Tyus Jones (100) / Delon Wright

G - Jordan Poole / Landry Shamet*

F - Deni Avdija / Corey Kispert

F - Kyle Kuzma (82) / Bilal Coulibaly

C - Daniel Gafford / Danilo Gallinari

*Will miss the start of the season due to injury

• Read The Wizards Preview

  Season Outlook

  The Wizards have quietly had one of the worst on-court products of any franchise this century, as they haven’t won 50 games in a season OR made an Eastern Conference Finals since 1979, and in that 44-year span, have won only five total playoff series. In recent years, they’ve been stuck in mediocrity. They went 34-38 in the shortened 2021 season en route to the 8 seed and a first round exit, and then followed that up by finishing exactly 35-47 in each of the past two seasons, missing out on the play-in altogether. They’ve been the best example we’ve had in the league of a team that was too talented to get a top draft pick, but not good enough to make the postseason, and it feels like they pick exactly 8th or 9th in the NBA draft every single year. In other words, they’ve been a team that has desperately needed to blow it up, trade their aging stars, and go through a full-blown rebuild, and finally, that’s what they decided to do.

  This was a busy offseason for Washington, as they traded their top two scorers from a year ago, sending Kristaps Porzingis to Boston and the face of the franchise, Bradley Beal, to Phoenix. After rerouting Chris Paul, as expected, the remains from those deals left them with a handful of picks, Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Danilo Gallinari, Landry Shamet, Mike Muscala, Patrick Baldwin Jr., and Ryan Rollins. The big prizes here being Jones and Poole. Jones has been the best back-up point guard in the league for a few years now and will finally get his shot at a full-time starting gig with the Wizards. As a starter last season, he averaged 16 points and 8 assists on 50% / 42% / 78% shooting splits and is absolutely elite as a floor general, leading the league in assist to turnover ratio for five straight seasons. Poole on the other hand, has had a roller coaster past couple years. He was instrumental in the Warriors 2022 title run, but has since regressed. While he did average a career high 20.4 PPG last season, he did so while shooting only 43% from the field and a well-below-league-average 33.6% from three on 7.8 attempts. He also averaged 3.1 turnovers per game, was a total disaster defensively (117 defensive rating), and continuously displayed his low basketball IQ with ill-advised shots and sloppy turnovers late in games. At only 24 years old, it makes sense why the Wizards were willing to take a flier on him though, as he could put up massive stats for this team as the go-to guy. That would be good for them for two reasons: 1) it will give the fans a reason to still watch because Poole is a flashy, highlight-reel type player that can put on a show when he’s hot and 2) with him as the number one option, this team is not going to be even remotely competitive, which is what they should want. Hopefully having the steady hand of Tyus Jones at point can hold Poole in check a bit, but if not, him and Kyle Kuzma (who’s coming off a career high 21.2 PPG) will put up a ton of points, but will also shoot this team out of a lot of games with their inefficiencies. They both also are total negatives defensively, so expect this team to be in a ton of high scoring games. Outside of that trio, this team has a handful of young guys that have shown some promise, but none that really project as more than role players, including Deni Avdija (22 years old), Corey Kispert (24), Bilal Coulibaly (19), and Daniel Gafford (25). Plus their first round pick from last year, Johnny Davis (21), who, unfortunately, looks not only like a massive bust after his rookie year, but maybe not even an NBA caliber player.

  This team is void of young players with star potential, but it’s just year one of this rebuild, so it’s going to take some time for them to compile that kind of talent. Even though this season might be grim, in the grand scheme of things, it is a step in the right direction. They are going to be a mess defensively and it will be the Kuzma and Poole show on offense, a formula that doesn’t seem like a winning one within the league’s current landscape. This team has major work to do, so expect them to be among the league’s worst teams this year.

  Team Ceiling

  They’ve certainly got some offensive firepower, so if that holds true and the role guys make up for their top guys’ defensive deficiencies, then they might be able to be a bit more competitive than expected. Ultimately though, if this group couldn’t make the play-in with Bradley Beal and Porzingis, then it’s highly unlikely they can do it with Poole and Tyus Jones. Even in their best case, this team is a lottery lock, and even just signs of competitiveness should be viewed as a positive.

  Team Floor

  With the personnel this group has in year one of their rebuild, it could get really ugly in Washington. This team has “worst team in the league” potential, so don’t be surprised if they are the front runners for the number one pick in this year’s upcoming draft.

29. Detroit Pistons

Projected Rotation

G - Cade Cunningham (75) / Monte Morris

G - Ausar Thompson / Jaden Ivey

F - Bojan Bogdanovic (86) / Alec Burks

F - Isaiah Stewart / Joe Harris

C - Jalen Duren / Marvin Bagley III

• Read The Pistons Preview

  Season Outlook

  Since the Pistons broke up their championship core of Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace back in 2008-09, they’ve made the playoffs only two times in 14 years, have only had a record above .500 a single time, and don’t have even one season with at least 45 wins. It’s been a mess for Detroit and the biggest reason why is that they haven’t been able to find a franchise player. Blake Griffin was the closest thing they’ve had to that, but he broke down in his early 30s and is currently not even on an NBA roster. They now have an assortment of young talent with a few candidates to step into that role, but only time will tell if they can make it happen.

  Last year was a bit of a lost season for this group, as Cade Cunningham played only 12 games in his second season, and a result, they won an NBA worst 17 games. To help get this team at least headed in the right direction, they made Monty Williams the highest paid coach in NBA history after he was let go by the Suns, in what was an extremely successful four-year run with the team, including an NBA Finals appearance. He has a strong track record of being able to connect with younger players and help them take the next step as a competent team, including working with a young Chris Paul in New Orleans, a young Anthony Davis also in New Orleans, and a young Devin Booker in Phoenix, bringing all of those groups to the postseason. The hope here is that he can do the same for Cade Cunningham. Cade showed a ton of flashes as a rookie but has yet to prove he can be a truly impactful NBA player. He has averaged 17.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.6 assists in his year plus, but has shot only 41.6% from the field and an even more concerning 30.9% from three. He is 6’6” true point guard with a good-looking shot and all the talent in the world to blossom into a star in this league. Unfortunately, in the small sample we’ve seen, he has been wildly inefficient and the advanced stats say that he has been an overwhelmingly negative player. If he can take the leap to stardom that many think he can, then the outlook for not only this team, but this whole franchise, will look drastically different. Now in year three, this season will be an important year to see what they really have with Cade and if he can be an all-star player or is more of a complementary piece. In addition to Cade, this team has a lot of intriguing, young talent with roster mainstays in Isaiah Stewart (22 years old), Killian Hayes (22), and Isaiah Livers (25), last year’s rookies Jaden Ivey (21) and Jalen Duren (19), reclamation projects in Marvin Bagley III (24) and James Wiseman (22), and their incoming rookies Ausar Thompson (20) and Marcus Sasser (23). That is a ton of under-25 talent, including seven guys drafted in the lottery (if you add Cade), and if they can even get a couple of those players to realize their potential, then this team’s timeline could be significantly expedited. This team also has a very solid group of veterans to support their young guys in Bojan Bogdanovic (career high 21.6 PPG last year), Monte Morris, Alec Burks, and Joe Harris. They almost have too many players for not enough spots in the rotation, so it will be interesting to see which guys end up being the odd men out, specifically in the guard rotation and big man rotation.

  Ultimately, this team’s destiny will most likely come down to what Cade will end up being. If he remains inefficient and struggles to take any sort of noticeable leap, then Detroit is unlikely to see any sort of major improvement to the team in terms of wins and losses. But if he can take even a mini-leap and bump his efficiency numbers up to a respectable number, then the Pistons could be a strong candidate to add 10+ wins to their total from a year ago. Either way, this team isn’t going to be very competitive, and adding any sort of expectations to even make the play-in is unrealistic. They’ll more likely than not be back in the lottery again but hopefully this time with momentum towards some legitimate improvement.

  Team Ceiling

  Like many other bottom-feeders in the league, Detroit could certainly find themselves staying in the hunt for the play-in for a good portion of the season, especially if Cade makes major strides towards improvement. Given the amount of teams going for it this year, the Pistons seem like a very strong candidate to eventually fall out of that race though, and they’ll likely be in the lottery once again, even in a best case.

  Team Floor

  Without any major improvements to any of their young guys, this season could look very similar to last year. Someone has to finish last in the East and Detroit is as much of a candidate as anyone, so another year competing for the top pick in the draft can’t be ruled out.

28. Portland Trail Blazers

Projected Rotation

G - Scoot Henderson / Malcolm Brogdon (72)

G - Anfernee Simons (87) / Matisse Thybulle

F - Shaedon Sharpe / Kris Murray

F - Jerami Grant (56) / Jabari Walker

C - Deandre Ayton (61) / Robert Williams III (77)

• Read The Trail Blazers Preview

  Season Outlook

  After drafting Damian Lillard in the 2012 draft, the Blazers went on to make the postseason in eight consecutive seasons. The problem is, they lost in the first round in five of those appearances and only made it past the second round one single time. Also, that one Western Conference Finals trip was a bit misleading in terms of how far along the team was as a contender. The Blazers caught a break with the way the bracket ended up that year, as it resulted in the presumed two best teams, Houston and Golden State, facing off in the second round, and when Portland did finally play the Warriors, they was uncompetitive and got swept despite Kevin Durant being out. The Dame-led Blazer were a perennial playoff team that just could not get over the hump and never were serious contenders in the West. The past two seasons have been even worse, as Portland has missed the playoffs altogether, winning only 27 and 33 games respectively.

  After years of speculation, a Lillard trade finally happened. Portland shipped him off to Milwaukee for a haul that ended up being three first round picks, two pick swaps, Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams III, Malcolm Brogdon, and Toumani Camara, a very solid return for them. Ayton is still only 25 and is an uber-efficient, perennial 18 and 10 guy that could see a bump up in his number with an expanded role. He also brings a tremendous amount of playoff experience for a guy his age. Williams and Brogdon have been floated as potential trade chips but it appears they will hold onto them for now at least. Williams brings elite rim-protection and will be a true defensive anchor for this group (something that has been majorly lacking here for years) and Brogdon is the reigning Sixth Man of the Year and a member of the 50/40/90 club. That’s not even to mention Portland’s biggest offseason acquisition, and maybe the person that helped put this trade request in motion, and that is Scoot Henderson. Most draft experts had Scoot as the clear number two prospect after Wembanyama in this year’s draft, so the Blazers were lucky that he fell to them at number three. He brings elite athleticism, strong playmaking ability, an NBA ready body, and a “first guy in the gym, last one to leave” type of work ethic. He’s only 19 years old and still has to work on his outside shot and adjusting to the speed of the NBA, but Portland will give him a leash long enough to work through the growing pains. He truly has the potential to be a generational talent in this league, think the mold of a John Wall or Ja Morant. Portland also has another pair of guards with massive offensive upside in Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe. Simons (24 years old) is among the best volume three-point shooters in the NBA (40% from three the past three years on 7 attempts) and Sharpe (20) started last season slow, but down the stretch showed why he might have been in contention for a top-three pick in his draft if he had actually played in college. In the final 10 games last season, in which he started all of them, Sharpe averaged 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 4.1 assists on 46% / 38% / 77% shooting splits. He has legit all-star potential given his age and skillset. They also re-signed Jerami Grant, a steady, veteran presence on this team who has shown that he can score 20-25 points per night in the right situation. He helps raise the floor on this team as a true professional scorer but also could be dangled as a trade chip once eligible to be dealt. The combination of adding Scoot, the players they received back in the Dame trade, and the young talent they already had on this team, such as Sharpe, put Portland in a very nice position to embark on the rebuild that fans have been desperately asking them to finally commit to.

  This team does have more win-now talent than a lot of other bottom-feeders in the league (Grant, Brogdon, Williams, Ayton, etc.), but that shouldn’t stop them from being very bad this year. They were 27th in defensive rating this season and 30th the season before that, and outside of Robert Williams (and maybe Ayton to an extent), they didn’t add anyone that should impact their defense enough to make them significantly better there. Grant hasn’t shown interest on that end in years, Simons is among the worst defensive guards in the entire league, Scoot and Sharpe are too young to have developed consistent habits on that end yet, and even Ayton has not been consistently engaged defensively while on a contender, so why would he start now that he’s on a lottery team? This team is also a prime candidate to sell at the deadline. Possibly Williams, but most likely Grant and Brogdon could find themselves shipped off to contenders by the end of the year, which makes it all the more likely that this group is jockeying for lottery position come the last month of the season.

  Team Ceiling

  This team has both the young talent and the proven veteran talent to be an annoying team to play for any contender. They have 5-6 guys that could drop 20 points on you any given night, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see this team hang around in the play-in discussion for a good portion of the season. Due to defensive issues and potential trades, it doesn’t seem likely that this team can keep it up all year long though, so expect them to fall back eventually and be solidly in the lottery, even if it’s in the tail-end.

  Team Floor

  With how bad this team might be on defense, the possibility of trades for their veterans, and how stacked the West is, this group could be really bad. There’s no doubt that they are a contender for the worst record in the West this season with a legit shot at another top pick in the draft.

27. San Antonio Spurs

Projected Rotation

G - Jeremy Sochan / Tre Jones

G - Devin Vassell (98) / Malaki Branham

F - Keldon Johnson (91) / Julian Champagnie

F - Victor Wembanyama / Cedi Osman

C - Zach Collins / Charles Bassey

• Read The Spurs Preview

  Season Outlook

  After 22 consecutive seasons in the postseason, including 20 straight years winning 50+ games, the Spurs dynasty finally came to an end after the retirement of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli and the unexpected trade demand of Kawhi Leonard. After three seasons of mediocrity as a mid-30s win team, San Antonio completed their full fall from grace in winning only 22 games last season, in what many hypothesized was an intentional tank job to land a certain someone in this year’s draft, and that is exactly what they did.

  David Robinson, Tim Duncan, and now Victor Wembanyama. I don’t know how they keep doing this, but the Spurs had a generational big man fall into their laps once again. Wemby is without a doubt the most hyped prospect since LeBron James and some have even gone as far as to call him the best prospect of all time. At 7’4”, an 8-foot wingspan, and the skills and mobility of a guard, it’s not hard to understand why when you watch him play. He’s an absolute freak on the court. He can handle the ball, can shoot it from anywhere on the court (both off-the-dribble and on the catch-and-shoot), has great basketball IQ and instinct, and has the length and anticipation to disrupt nearly any shot on the defensive end. Wembanyama has a chance to be special immediately, especially given the impact he can have on both ends of the court. Alongside Wemby, the Spurs have a few other promising young players, most notably Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Jeremy Sochan. Johnson and Vassell were this team’s leading scorers last season and both have increased their scoring each year in the league thus far, topping out at 22 PPG for Johnson and 18 PPG for Vassell last season. Sochan is a Swiss Army knife type player that does a little bit of everything. He’s great on the defensive end, showed flashes as a scorer late in the year, and is good enough of a ball-handler and distributor that Popovic plans to begin the season with him as the starting point guard for the team. Oh, and he shoots one-handed free throws as well and is much improved from the line because of it, which is fun. They also have other, less proven, young guys with upside in addition with Tre Jones, Malaki Branham, Blake Wesley, Zach Collins, Julian Champagnie, and Siddy Cissoko. One thing this group does majorly lack is veterans. They have one single player on the entire roster that is in their 30s (Doug McDermott) and only two players above the age of 25 (McDermott and Cedi Osman).

  Even with a Hall of Fame head coach in Gregg Popovic and the addition of Wemby, putting any expectations on this team in his first season is not realistic. They have no veteran contributors, their returning key players have been largely inefficient in their careers (55% True Shooting for both Vassell and Johnson last year), and Wembanyama is only 19 years old. Wemby also has one of the frailest frames in the entire league, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get bullied around a little bit early in his career. I also wouldn’t be shocked if they were very careful with Wemby this season in terms of managing his load, and since they’re likely going to play at 60-loss pace in the games he misses, if he misses even 15-20 games then that’s going to hurt their record a good bit. Ultimately, I think the Spurs are fine with taking this season slow and spending another year in the lottery before they start to make a postseason push, but if Wemby is as good as everything thinks he’ll be, then that could be as soon as next season.

  Team Ceiling

  Wemby could be good enough right away to put himself in the all-star discussion, and if he does, then this team will likely be relatively competitive. However, the West is loaded this year, so while they might be in the play-in race for part of the season, odds are high that towards the end of the year this team might be careful with Wemby and mail it in. Consider this team unlikely to make the play-in when it’s all said and done, but a 10+ win improvement wouldn’t be out of the question.

  Team Floor

  It is pretty rare for even the greatest players of all-time to have an overwhelming impact on winning in their first season, especially as a teenager. Even if Wemby shows flashes of greatness, odds are high that he has his struggles as well. His growing pains, paired with a relatively weak supporting cast, could keep this team where they were a year ago: at the bottom of the Western Conference vying for the top pick in the draft.

26. Houston Rockets

Projected Rotation

G - Fred VanVleet (57) / Amen Thompson

G - Jalen Green / Cam Whitmore

F - Dillon Brooks / Jae’Sean Tate

F - Jabari Smith / Tari Eason

C - Alperen Sengun (89) / Jock Landale

• Read The Rockets Preview

  Season Outlook

  Since James Harden forced his way out of Houston, this franchise has been a total mess on the court. In the three seasons since he was traded, they’ve played at 60-loss pace in all three and had the NBA’s worst record in two of them. They are still in rebuilding mode but finally did add some veterans to help complement the group of young talent they’ve been collecting.

  There were rumblings of a Harden reunion in Houston this summer but the Rockets ultimately decided against it due to what many have hypothesized was a decision led by new head coach, Ime Udoka. The team did have an abundance of cap space they needed to use though, so instead they spent north of $60M combined annually on Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. This team has very badly needed some help defensively, as they’ve ranked 27th, 29th, and 29th in defensive rating over the past three seasons, and both VanVleet and Brooks should help immensely on that front. Brooks is coming off a year in which he made an all-defensive team and VanVleet has been very solid on that end throughout his career. VanVleet also brings the kind of consistent offensive production, veteran leadership, and championship pedigree that this team just has not had any of in recent years. The only veteran presence this team has had at all over the past few seasons has been Eric Gordon, who is now 34 and past his prime. To put into perspective how young and inexperienced this team has been, after Gordon and Boban Marjanovic (who barely even played), last year’s team didn’t have a single other player on the full-time roster that had more than three years of experience in the NBA. When you’re bad, you want young players, but that level of youth without any sort of steady veteran presence makes it nearly impossible to compete in this league. However, being so bad has allowed this team to compile a really nice group of young players to build around, headlined by Jalen Green (21 years old), Jabari Smith (20), and Alperen Sengun (21). Green has been impressive as a scorer, averaging 22 PPG in only his second season, Smith showed real flashes as a rookie and looked too good for summer league this year, and Sengun, who wasn’t drafted as highly as Green or Smith, might be the best of the bunch. Sengun already looks like a mini-Sabonis or an even mini-er Jokic, and he carries a similar level of upside to those guys if he continues to develop. The list doesn’t stop there though, as Tari Eason looked like a mid-round steal from last year’s draft and they also added Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore in the first round of this year’s draft as well.

  Having some grownups in the room will help, as will the addition of Udoka, a guy that is absolutely going to hold these players way more accountable than they have been in the past, but this team is still going to be bad. Thus far, their young guys have not been committed to the defensive end at all, and in Green and Smith’s case, they’ve been wildly inefficient offensively as well (41.6% from the field for Green and 40.8% for Smith). For this season, winning even just 30+ games should be viewed as a success, and hopefully the Udoka and VanVleet additions can help get a better, more efficient, and defensive minded version of Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, and the rest of the young guys.

  Team Ceiling

  Playoffs for this year is definitely too lofty of a goal, but if Jabari takes a bit of a leap, Green can up his efficiency, and Udoka gets more out of this group defensively, then they have the talent to at least make a little bit of noise in the West. They could definitely flirt with a play-in spot for most of the season before ultimately falling short. Even if they miss the play-in, this team could definitely be a candidate to win 10+ more games than they did a year ago.

  Team Floor

  The Rockets have averaged only 20 wins per season over the past three years, so this season could be more of the same if their young guys come back largely the same and they don’t improve on defense. There is definitely a world where this group finishes dead last in the Western Conference standings and once again is competing for the top pick in the draft.

Tier 9: Bad But Fun

Charlotte Hornets

Utah Jazz

Brooklyn Nets

At their best, these teams are all too good to be thinking about tanking for a top draft pick, but they also have no real shot at the postseason. The difference between these teams and the ‘Directionless Teams’? This group isn’t built around aging stars or veterans, but instead, have a bevy of young talent and assets to make a big move if they wanted. They’re not “blow it up” candidates because there isn’t much to blow up here — they are just riding the wave of their young talent and seeing where it takes them, which is probably the tail end of the lottery.

25. Utah Jazz

Projected Rotation

G - Jordan Clarkson / Collin Sexton

G - Talen Horton-Tucker / Keyonte George

F - Lauri Markkanen (36) / Ochai Agbaji

F - John Collins (97) / Taylor Hendricks

C - Walker Kessler (96) / Kelly Olynyk

• Read The Jazz Preview

  Season Outlook

  After years as a solid playoff team with limited championship upside, the Jazz finally did the smart thing and decided to blow it up by trading both Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell in an attempt to bottom out and compile assets. A great idea in theory, but they ended up adding too many good players for them to bottom out. Utah got off to a phenomenal start last year, and just three weeks into the season, had the best record in the West at 10-3. They eventually came back to Earth, but were still in the play-in hunt for the majority of the season and were tied for the 9 seed at 35-36 as late as March 20th. They went on to finish the year losing 9 of their last 11 games, which took them firmly out of the play-in, but their hot start gave them too much of a cushion to compete for a top pick in the draft.

  This team’s only big move this offseason was the acquisition of John Collins, a guy that is coming off his worst season as a pro and had majorly fallen out of favor in Atlanta. However, his situation is not so dissimilar from what Lauri Markkanen had experienced early in his career: a productive player with a very impressive skillset that just couldn’t find the right role with his previous team. Being by far the biggest reason Utah surprised people last season, it can’t be stated enough how impressive Markkanen’s first season in Utah was once he was given a longer leash. He averaged over 25 PPG and legitimately flirted with a 50/40/90 season. After spending most of his career as a spot-up shooting pick-and-pop big man, Markkanen took major leaps as an isolation scorer and shot-creator this past season, something that not many thought he was capable of. Much like Markkanen, Collins was relegated to a role that didn’t exactly maximize his skillset, mostly as a guy that stood in the corner to shoot threes. Do I expect Collins to average 25 PPG this year? No, but in the 3 seasons before last, he averaged 18 and 8 on 56% / 39% / 81% splits as the number-two scoring option on an Atlanta team that made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021. He’s been an extremely efficient stretch-four that doesn’t demand shots, doesn’t force things, and is solid defensively. Given Utah’s organizational stability, track record revitalizing players, and the outstanding job Will Hardy did in his first season, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Collins had a bounce back year in Utah. Aside from those two, the Jazz might have found an absolute steal when they acquired Walker Kessler in the Gobert deal. After not seeing many minutes in the first half of the year, he was a revelation in the second half. He averaged a double-double as a starter, blocked 3.3 shots per game after the all-star break, was extremely efficient (72% from the field), and the advanced stats absolutely loved him, even as a rookie. This team also still has Collin Sexton (still only 24 years old) and Ochai Agbaji (23) from the Mitchell trade, Talen Horton-Tucker (22) from last year’s midseason deal, and drafted Taylor Hendricks (19), Keyonte George (19), and Brice Sensabaugh (19) in the first round this year, so they are absolutely loaded with young talent. George in particular really impressed in summer league and preseason and could be a dark horse to compete for the Rookie of the Year award. They’ve also got productive veterans in Jordan Clarkson, Kelly Olynyk, and Kris Dunn, and any of those guys could be trade candidates this year.

  This team has loads of young talent and a treasure chest of picks after trading their two stars last year, so they have all the assets you could want to make a big move if they wanted to at some point. But for now, they seem content throwing their young guys out there and seeing what happens under Will Hardy, a guy that looks like one of the next elite coaches in the league. As we saw last year, this team is likely too talented to be among the worst records in the league, especially if Markkanen replicates his production, Collins has a bounce back year, Kessler continues his strong play from the second half, or any of the rookies pop right away. However, the West is totally loaded this season, so given their lack of star power and the fact that they might mail it in towards the end of the season like they did last year, Utah likely will find themselves in the lottery once again this season. Maybe next year they can make a real push towards play-in contention but they’d be smart to sit this year out.

  Team Ceiling

  We basically saw their ceiling last year. Markkanen looks like a star, their veterans contribute at a high level, and a few of their young guys break out in a big way (Kessler last year, could be George this year). If that happens again, expect Utah to hang around in the play-in discussion for most of the season, and if they continue to go for it towards the end of the season, they could actually make the play-in this year. If they did, I can’t see them getting all the way to the playoffs, as the other teams in the play-in race will have a major advantage talent wise and experience wise.

  Team Floor

  Markkanen could regress, Collins could show us last year was no fluke, and none of the young guys could do much this year. In this case, the Jazz could find themselves among the bottom-feeders in the West, especially if they sustain an injury or decide to tank in the second half.

24. Charlotte Hornets

Projected Rotation

G - LaMelo Ball (38) / Frank Ntilikina

G - Terry Rozier / Cody Martin

F - Gordon Hayward (81) / Brandon Miller

F - PJ Washington / Miles Bridges (85)*

C - Mark Williams / Nick Richards

*Will miss first 10 games of season due to suspension

• Read The Hornets Preview

  Season Outlook

  It’s been seven years since the Hornets made the playoffs and they only have one winning season in that entire span as well, when they went 43-39 in LaMelo Ball’s rookie year back in 2022. They have, however, made the play-in twice in the past three seasons, but got absolutely waxed both times, losing by 27 to the Pacers in 2021 and blown out by 31 by the Hawks in 2022. Last year was a bit of a lost season for them, as LaMelo played only 36 games and the Hornets won only 27 games, the second lowest total for this franchise since they were called the Bobcats.

  The Hornets did not make any major additions to this roster via trade or free agency, but instead, bring back all their guys and relied on the draft to add to the team. They drafted Brandon Miller with the number two overall pick and also added a few other other guys later in the draft, most notably Nick Smith Jr. and Amari Bailey. On top of Miller, this team also has a number of other promising young guys that they’re building around. Mark Williams is only 21 and was very impressive in the second half of the season as a shot-blocker and rim-runner, P.J. Washington is still 25 and was just re-signed to a team friendly deal after a career high 15.7 PPG last year, and Miles Bridges is reportedly coming back this season, is still only 25, and had a breakout year in his most recent season, averaging over 20 PPG on solid efficiency. But the face of the franchise right now is LaMelo Ball, and right now, this team will go as far as he can take them, which is highlighted by their 75-87 record when he plays and 28-46 record without him. LaMelo is still only 22 years old, has already made an NBA all-star game, and is among the league’s most exciting young players to watch. However, the upside on this team is extremely limited. Unless Brandon Miller can develop into a star (consider me a skeptic on this), then after LaMelo, this team doesn’t really have any other players that project as better than complementary pieces, despite having an overall young roster. A lot of that has to do with their lackluster drafting the past few seasons outside of LaMelo, as James Bouknight looks like a bust, Kai Jones was just recently waived, and the jury is still out on the decision to take Miller over Scoot Henderson. With Veterans like Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward, this group has enough talent to be way more competitive in the East than they were last year, as it’s essentially the same group that won 43 games two years ago with Miller and Williams in place of Kelly Oubre Jr. and Mason Plumlee, both arguably upgrades.

  Ultimately, this is one of the stranger rosters in the NBA to figure out which direction they’re headed, as they are kind of stuck in no man’s land without a clear path out of it. Unlike the bottom-feeders of the league, they have a potential cornerstone player to build around and aren’t predominantly reliant on underdeveloped and raw players throughout their rotation. At the same time, unlike the other middling teams in the East, they aren’t built around older veteran players in or past their prime. All that to say that their talent might be too polished for them to be awful if they are healthy but they also don’t have really any guys to trade away to help them bottom out. You just aren’t going to deal guys at age 25 on good contracts like Bridges or Washington without a significant upgrade, so that really only leaves Rozier and Hayward as trade candidates, neither of which are good enough at this stage of their careers to make a marginal difference or get any sort of substantial assets back in a deal. Their best course of action is to just play it out and see if any of their young guys, most notably Brandon Miller, can show signs of potential stardom. Otherwise, this team will go as far as LaMelo can take them, and unfortunately for them, that is likely to be in a place where they are too good to contend for a top pick but not good enough to seriously compete for the playoffs.

  Team Ceiling

  If LaMelo is fully healthy and back at an all-start level, Bridges comes back and is not a distraction, guys like Mark Williams continue to impress, and Brandon Miller can show us why they made the right choice with the second pick, then this team could certainly be better than most people expect. 40-42 wins could be in play, and if they get there, then a spot in the play-in is all but guaranteed. While it hasn’t gone well for them in the play-in before, in a one or two game setting, anything can happen, and they could certainly punch their ticket to the postseason this time around. If they did make it, don’t expect any noise in the postseason, as this team would be light work for any of the top seeds in the East.

  Team Floor

  Miller could be a bust, Bridges could be a major distraction, the other young guys could show flashes but nothing else, and LaMelo could fail to show any clear signs of improvement. In this case, their season might look much more similar to last year and they’ll hover around 30 wins, too bad for the play-in but too good for a top pick.

23. Brooklyn Nets

Projected Rotation

G - Ben Simmons / Cam Thomas

G - Spencer Dinwiddie / Lonnie Walker IV

F - Mikal Bridges (37) / Royce O’Neale

F - Cameron Johnson (88) / Dorian Finney-Smith

C - Nic Claxton (76) / Day’Ron Sharpe

• Read The Nets Preview

  Season Outlook

  No one has experienced the kind of roller coaster that Brooklyn has been on over the past five years. They somehow recovered from the Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett trade and put together a really fun group of role players and misfits in 2019, en route to 42 wins and a playoff berth. That was enough to persuade Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant to sign with them that offseason. In their first full season in 2021, they then dumped all of their draft capital to add James Harden before injuries cut their postseason run short. The next year, Harden asked out and they were force to deal him for a currently inactive Ben Simmons and then got swept in the first round. Then last season, the team was playing well and all seemed fine until another Kyrie saga began, ultimately leading to him asking out, and subsequently KD as well. They now are left with another group of misfits, similar to their 2019 season, and come into this season with no real expectations or clear direction.

  The Nets didn’t make any major offseason additions outside of the rookies they brought in, most notably Dariq Whitehead and Noah Clowney, and free agent signing Lonnie Walker IV. Given the massive amount of roster turnover they’ve had in recent years, it makes sense why they might want to go into a year with some sort of continuity. The headliner for this group is Mikal Bridges, who in Phoenix, was maybe the best version of a 3-and-D player that we had in the league. He shot 39% from three point range over his last two and a half years with the Suns and was runner up for Defensive Player of the Year award in 2022. But once that leash was loosened in Brooklyn, we saw that Bridges could be much more than an elite role player, but maybe even an all-star, as he averaged over 26 PPG on efficient 48% / 38% / 89% splits after being dealt. The problem is, even with his breakout, he’s likely not suited to be a number one option on a good team. That’s kind of the story of this roster, they have a lot of solid players, but are loaded with guys who should be the fourth or fifth starter on a good team. Cam Johnson (in Phoenix), Royce O’Neal (in Utah), Dorian Finney-Smith (in Dallas), Spencer Dinwiddie (in Dallas), Nic Claxton (here in Brooklyn), these are all guys we’ve witnessed thrive as the fifth starter on top-tier playoff teams. This group has the kind of role players that any team would want, but they just don’t have the stars to pair with them. By far the biggest wild card for them is Ben Simmons. He’s been a complete mess ever since the playoff series vs. the Hawks back in 2021, sitting out all of 2022, and then averaging only 6.9 PPG last year in 42 games. If he can get back to what he was early with the 76ers when he made an all-NBA team then it would majorly affect this team’s ceiling. But given his recent track record and unreliability, that doesn’t seem like something they can count on.

  This is a team that really does not have the requisite talent at the top of the roster to compete for a playoff spot, as they went only 12-15 after the deadline with this same group. In an ideal scenario, they could potentially sell off some of their role players for picks in hope of bottoming out a bit and lobbying for a better draft spot. The problem is, they don’t own any of their picks in the near future due to the Harden trade, and instead, the majority of their current draft capital is from Dallas and Phoenix from the Kyrie and KD trades. With that said, this team has no incentive to be bad or tank, so I expect them to try to win as many games as they can. Unfortunately, I just don’t think that’s going to be very many.

  Team Ceiling

  If we see the old Ben Simmons, Mikal Bridges proves his play last year was not just a hot streak, Nic Claxton continues to shine defensively, and their group of role players thrive, then this group could flirt with the playoffs. They’re going to go for it no matter what given their pick situation and they do have the personnel to be really good defensively. This team could find itself in the 7-9 seed range and sneak into the play-offs by winning their play-in games. A first round exit would no doubt be in the cards though.

  Team Floor

  This team’s star power is really lacking, and if Simmons is largely the same as he was last year, then their ceiling could be really low. With a lot of teams in the mix for the play-in in the East, this team could absolutely miss the play-in altogether and find themselves sending Houston a top 10 pick in this year’s draft.

Tier 8: Directionless Teams

Chicago Bulls

Toronto Raptors

If you’re looking for the next team to blow it up, this is where you’ll find it. These teams are trying to be good but are living in delusion. They are stuck in mediocrity — too good to get a top draft pick but not good enough to realistically make any noise in the playoffs. Could they sneak into the postseason? Sure, but what would that accomplish? Their real issue is that they lack top-tier talent or any players with star-level upside. Without the means to acquire that, they’ll be stuck without a direction until they stop delaying the inevitable — a rebuild.

22. Chicago Bulls

Projected Rotation

G - Coby White / Ayo Dosunmu

G - Zach LaVine (43) / Jevon Carter

F - DeMar DeRozan (41) / Alex Caruso

F - Patrick Williams / Torrey Craig

C - Nikola Vucevic (80) / Andre Drummond

*Lonzo Ball is not listed, as he will miss the entire 2023-24 season due to injury

• Read The Bulls Preview

  Season Outlook

  The Bulls went four years without making the playoffs before trading for Nikola Vucevic at the 2021 deadline and then adding DeMar DeRozan in free agency the following offseason. With that revamped group, they got off to a scorching start in 2021-22, and as late as February 25th, sat atop the Eastern Conference standings as the number one seed with a 39-21 record (53-win pace). However, they limped to the finish line, finishing the year 7-15 over the final 22 games of the year before being bounced in the first round by the Bucks. That subpar play carried over into the 2022-23 season, where they started the year 11-18 and ended up missed the playoffs entirely. The Bulls have now gone a combined 47-57 since they relinquished the one seed late in 2022.

  Chicago brings back basically the exact same group from a year ago, with their only real additions being Jevon Carter and Torrey Craig, both solid role players that have had good moments for contenders in the past, but not true needle-movers. Most notably, they bring back their “big three” (if you want to call it that) of Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic, all of whom have made exactly two all-star appearances in the past four seasons, and in DeRozan’s case, an all-NBA team as well. The problem is, none of those guys are good enough to be “the guy”. With DeRozan already 34 years old and Vucevic turning 33 on opening night, odds are hight that not only have both of these guys already seen their best days, but they could start to majorly decline as soon as this season. LaVine is a bit younger, but will still be 29 by season’s end, is entering his 10th season in the league, and has only one single playoff appearance to his name. None of these guys are top-40 players in the league at this point and that can be best illustrated by their lackluster postseason track records. DeRozan has shot only 41.8% for his career in the playoffs and is just 17% from 3PT in his last five postseason trips, including two runs in which he didn’t make a single three pointer. His scoring volume and assist numbers also take a noticeable hit, and perhaps most telling of all, is that his teams consistently fall flat. Vucevic has never even made it to game 6 of a playoff series before and LaVine’s scoring and efficiency took a major hit (sub-20 PPG on 42.9%) in his one appearance. These guys have all been varying levels of good-to-elite as scorers and offensive players, but their track record shows us that they just aren’t fit to lead a team on a meaningful playoff run. They also don’t have anyone else on the roster with the clear potential to help that issue. Patrick Williams, Coby White, and Ayo Dosunmu are their best young assets, but White has been wildly inefficient from the field (41.9% for his career) and Williams and Dosunmu likely don’t project as more than role players.

  Given DeRozan’s and Vucevic’s ages, plus the fact that DeRozan is on an expiring deal, the Bulls would likely be well served to consider gauging the trade market on their aging all-stars, as well as other role players like Alex Caruso, whom they might be able to get some real assets back in return for. We’ve seen what this team can be, and unfortunately, they just have no shot to contend with his core and aren’t getting any younger. Could this team win 40+ games again and sneak into the playoffs as a 7 or 8 seed? Absolutely they could, but what good would that do for this franchise when they’d assuredly be bounced in the first round and DeRozan would likely walk for nothing? They’d then be building around a 33-year-old center and a 29-year-old guard that doesn’t make others better and doesn’t give any defensive effort. This team should commit to the rebuild, or at least a retool, and cut their losses on this season.

  Team Ceiling

  This team could definitely win 40+ games and compete for a playoff spot all season before likely finishing as a play-in team. The 7 or 8 seed isn’t out of play for them and they could win their play-in game to stay in that spot. However, no matter who they face in the first round after that, it’s unlikely they’d be able to make a series vs. a top East team very competitive.

  Team Floor

  Things could get ugly here. Their stars could decline and their mediocre play of the last season and a half could continue. It’s not out of the question that this group could be surpassed by younger, up-and-coming teams like Orlando or Indiana, and they’re already competing with teams like Toronto, Charlotte, and Brooklyn for those play-in spots. A slow start could mean this team starts selling off their veterans, and at that point, they might drop down out of the play-in discussion altogether.

21. Toronto Raptors

Projected Rotation

G - Dennis Schroder / Gary Trent Jr.

G - Scottie Barnes (60) / Gradey Dick

F - OG Anunoby (52) / Otto Porter Jr.

F - Pascal Siakam (23) / Jalen McDaniels

C - Jakob Poeltl (95) / Prescious Achiuwa

• Read The Raptors Preview

  Season Outlook

  The Raptors went all in on a championship run when they traded for Kawhi Leonard without any assurance he’d resign back in 2018 and it paid off with the franchise’s first title. Since then, this team has been extremely up and down. They played at 60-win pace in 2020, even without Kawhi, before losing in the second round. The next year, they were genuinely bad and fell all the way to 31-win pace in 2021 without even sniffing the postseason. They then bounced back for 48 wins in 2022, losing in the first round. Then last year, they were as mediocre as it comes, finishing .500 at 41-41 and losing in the play-in. This team seems unwilling to commit to winning now or building for the future, and their recent results show exactly just that.

  After being reluctant to trade Fred VanVleet for assets last season, they watched him leave the team for nothing this offseason — a recent recurring theme for this front office, re: Kyle Lowry. With him gone, they added Dennis Schroder, drafted Gradey Dick, and then brought the rest of the gang back. This team certainly still has talent: Pascal Siakam is a two-time all-NBA player in his prime, OG Anunoby is the 3-and-D player that every contender has been begging Toronto to move for years, and Scottie Barnes is one year removed from running away with the Rookie of the Year award. They also have one of the most underrated centers in the league in Jakob Poeltl and other good role players in Gary Trent Jr., Otto Porter, and Prescious Achuiwa. It was a hectic year for this group last year, and their lead executive Masai Ujiri even admitted that they had some issues with getting along and playing together. Instead of shaking things up, they went for the old “blame the coach” approach and fired Nick Nurse in favor of Darko Rajakovic, an assistant with the Grizzlies last season and a hire that certainly doesn’t scream “win now.” Masai has been toeing the line of going all in and rebuilding, but refuses to commit. They’ve been the “wild card” team in both the Kevin Durant and Damian Lillard trade sagas, but couldn’t get either done because they refused to include Scottie Barnes. At the same time, they’ve been reluctant to entertain the idea of moving either Siakam (now 29 years old) or Anunoby, despite both being on expiring contracts with no interest in signing extensions (which is worse when you consider the rumors of teams offering three first round picks for OG). Masai has bought some real time with this franchise given that he brought them a title, but if they lose even one of Siakam or Anunoby for nothing after letting both VanVleet and Lowry walk, then his leash is going to start to get very short.

  As mentioned, this group does have talent, but this specific collection of players has maxed out, and that’s not even to mention the step back they might take with the downgrade from VanVleet to Schroder. Their absolute best case is a 6-8 seed and a first round exit, but absolutely nothing is guaranteed, not even a playoff spot. They’re completely stuck in the middle on multiple timelines with Barnes (22 years old) and Siakam (29) being their two core guys, and they’d be best served dealing one or both of Siakam and Anunoby before the deadline and then resetting with Barnes, Dick, Achiuwa and whatever assets they get back in a deal.

  Team Ceiling

  A new voice in the huddle is effective, Barnes takes a leap, and Siakam has another all-NBA level season. All of that could get this group in the playoff discussion, but likely no higher than a 6-7 seed. A first round exit is all but a lock at that point.

  Team Floor

  Rajakovic is in over his head, they really miss VanVleet, Barnes’ play stagnates again, particularly offensively, and their chemistry issues from last season persist. Suddenly their .500 mark from last season even seems like a stretch, and given the bunch of teams in the middle in the East, this team finds themselves on the outside look in on the play-in.

Tier 7: If Not This Year, Maybe Next

Orlando Magic

Indiana Pacers

New Orleans Pelicans

Minnesota Timberwolves

Oklahoma City Thunder

If you’re looking for a candidate to be this year’s Kings and surprise the league with a top-four seed, this is where you will find one. These teams are varying degrees of unproven — some have yet to make the playoffs with their current core and others have made it but been easy first round exits every time. But that is sure to change soon. They all have an abundance of young talent, and most notably, at least one player with superstar, all-NBA-level potential that could be actualized as soon as this season. They might be a year away from true postseason contention, but I’d rather be a year early picking their ascension than a year late.

20. Orlando Magic

Projected Rotation

G - Markelle Fultz / Cole Anthony

G - Jalen Suggs / Gary Harris

F - Franz Wagner (62) / Joe Ingles

F - Paolo Banchero (53) / Jonathan Isaac

C - Wendell Carter (99) / Moritz Wagner

• Read The Magic Preview

  Season Outlook

  The Magic have only two playoff appearances in 11 seasons since Dwight Howard was traded back in 2012 and both the years they made the postseason they were a 7 seed or worse and lost in an uncompetitive five-game series. Last season didn’t start much better for this group, as they got off to a dreadful 5-20 start, but immediately after that, won 8 of their next 9 on way to finishing the season 29-28 over the final 57 games of the year. This group has assembled an impressive amount of young talent and they are hoping to bring the momentum of last year’s last two-thirds of the season into this year.

  Orlando has been compiling young players for a few years now, and it seems as if they may have massively hit on two of them: Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Wagner is not elite at any one thing, but he is as solid as it comes at pretty much everything. He’s shown the ability to knock down from three at a respectable clip, he’s a good ball-handler and shot-creator for his size, and he is solid on the defensive end. It remains unclear what Wagner’s ceiling is as a player, as he seems like a sure thing to be at least a high-level role player, but after how impressive he looked overseas in the FIBA World Cup, there’s reason to believe he could legitimately blossom into an all-star. Paolo, on the other hand, looks like he is poised to be a superstar in this league. He ran away with the Rookie of the Year award this past season, as he showed off his elite shot creation, ability to get to the line (7.4 FTAs), and underrated playmaking (3.7 assists per game). At 6’10”, 250, he is massive, and it’s crazy at his size the way he’s able to handle the ball, get out on the fast break, and blow past guys, all at just the ripe age of 20 years old. This pairing makes up what is likely the best, 22-and-under front court duo in the NBA right now, and it’s only a matter of time before both take the next leap. Their third front court-mate is no slouch either, as Wendell Carter is one of the most underrated bigs in the league, quietly averaging 15 and 9 in back-to-back years and shooting a respectable 35.6% from three point range a year ago. They’ve also been playing the numbers game on their group of young guards, trading for Markelle Fultz and drafting Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs all within the past few years. While Suggs and Anthony have been a mixed bag thus far, Fultz had a really solid season last year and established himself as the clear-cut starting point guard for this team. They also have a very deep group of other young players that if they get anything from would be a massive plus in Anthony Black, Jett Howard, Chuma Okeke, and Caleb Houstan. Add in their free agent signing, Joe Ingles, and the other veterans they have on the roster in Mo Wagner, Gary Harris, and a healthy Jonathan Isaac (yes, that Jonathan Isaac), and this team has 12+ guys that could make a legit claim at minutes this season. This group’s effort down the stretch of last season was very encouraging, especially on the defensive end, where they had the sixth best defensive rating from February on, and the natural progression would be for them to bring that momentum into this year as well.

  The Paolo and Wagner combo is a phenomenal core to start with, but the guard play on this team is questionable at best, and potentially even concerning. Specifically, they just don’t have guys that can shoot. Fultz played really well on the defensive end last year and was a good offensive initiator, but that jump shot is still broken. He (27.8% career from three), Suggs (27.1%), Anthony (34.5%), and Black (30.1% in college) all have not only been below average shooters so far in their careers, but genuinely bad ones, and this team shot only 34.6% from three overall, well below league average. They did draft Jett Howard in an attempt to address that, but he looked like a reach at 11th overall (especially with Gradey Dick still on the board), and the deficiencies in the rest of his game might make it difficult for him to even find any minutes on this team. The Magic also had a ton of cap space this summer and had a chance to really add some impact veterans that could help get them over the hump (maybe Fred VanVleet?), and all they did was sign a 36-year-old Joe Ingles, an underwhelming move considering how washed he looked at times last season. While a leap from Paolo and Franz could make a massive difference for this team, if they don’t take that leap, then it’s going to be hard for this team to be much better than last season considering how inefficient Paolo was last year. He shot only 42.7% from the field and was one of the worst volume three point shooters in the entire league a year ago, which is excusable as a rookie, but entering his second season, he can’t continue to shoot that poorly.

  Unless some of the other young guys can step up, then this group will likely live and die on the progression of their two front court guys. I am as big of a Paolo and Franz guy as there is, so I expect both to take a step forward, and Paolo in particular could be in for a classic year-two jump in both efficiency and production. However, their guard play has been an issue and I’m not sure they’ll be able to overcome that. I’m not sure the long term answer at guard is currently on the roster and their shooting is still a major concern that they didn’t do much to address. It’s certainly tempting to pick this group to jump up into the postseason, but I still think they are one transaction cycle away from getting there, as their offseason was a bit disappointing given the cap space and flexibility they had. I think Paolo and Wagner will be good enough to get this team in the play-in, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they snuck in the playoffs, but I think next year makes more sense for this group.

  Team Ceiling

  If their second half defense proves to not be a fluke, Paolo and Wagner both jump to borderline all-star level, Fultz continues his strong play, and at least one of the other guards improves as a shooter, then the postseason is certainly in play for this group. A top-6 seed? Unlikely, so they’ll need to get there via the play-in, but the middle of the East is filled with mediocre teams, so it’s doable for them to sneak in this year before getting bounced by a contender in the first round.

  Team Floor

  The guards could remain a question mark, Paolo and Franz could be largely the same players from a year ago, and they once again could fail to put together a full season’s worth of consistent play. They’re still too good to be in the absolute basement of the East, but missing the play-in and picking in the top 10 of the lottery is once again is in play for this group.

19. Indiana Pacers

Projected Rotation

G - Tyrese Haliburton (20) / TJ McConnell

G - Bennedict Mathurin / Andrew Nembhard

F - Bruce Brown / Buddy Hield

F - Obi Toppin / Jarace Walker

C - Myles Turner (67) / Jalen Smith

• Read The Pacers Preview

  Season Outlook

  Projected to be among the worst teams in the NBA last season and a candidate to tank for Wemby, the Pacers actually found themselves right in the thick of the playoff race midway through the season. On January 8th, Indiana had won 8 out of 10 games and owned an impressive 23-18 record, sitting as the five seed of the Eastern Conference. Just a few games later, Tyrese Haliburton proceeded to get hurt and that injury majorly derailed their season. Without him, they proceeded to go 2-16 in their next 18 games, a stretch that dropped them all the way down to the 12 seed and completely knocked them out of playoff contention. Regardless of their limp to the finish line, this team looked way ahead of schedule in their rebuild back to contention and should be able to bring the confidence from their hot start into this coming season.

  There is a lot to love about this Indiana roster. They’re young, but are loaded with talent and still have multiple veterans that will be major contributors, or at the very least, act as trade chips if they decide to go that route. This team’s future begins and ends with Tyrese Haliburton, who not only looks like a future superstar, but might already be one. The pass-first, true point guard archetype of player is nearly a dying breed in today’s NBA, but Haliburton might be the closest thing that remains in the the league today. In his breakout season this past year, he averaged a very impressive 10.4 assists per game, good for second in the league, compared to only 2.5 turnovers per game, the second lowest among any player in the top 10 in assists, behind only the “point god” himself, Chris Paul. Perhaps the sneakiest part of Haliburton’s game is how good of a shooter he is. Despite his unorthodox form, he is a career 40.8% from three point range and has shot 40% or better in all three of his seasons thus far. Pair that with his 49% from the field overall and 87% from the line last season, and he has the makings of a perennial 50/40/90 candidate. Next to Haliburton, this team has a great collection of young talent. They drafted Jarace Walker, who has a Draymond Green type skillset, traded for Obi Toppin, who seems like a great change of scenery guy, and bring back Ben Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard, both of whom well outperformed expectations as rookies last year. Mathurin in particularly impressed and has the looks of a future 20 PPG scorer, especially with his ability to get to the line. On top of that, they add Bruce Brown to a veteran core of Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, T.J. McConnell, and Daniel Theis, all of whom have uniquely valuable and coveted skillsets. They’ve got their budding superstar, a number of young players that are candidates to pop, and multiple veterans that bring some combination of defense, shooting, and playmaking. Put all that together with a championship head coach in Rick Carlisle, and you have a group that seems poised to break out very soon.

  Of course most of these players are still very young (Haliburton 23, Nembhard 23, Walker 20, Toppin 25, and Mathurin 21), so there is a very real chance that their guys take another year or two to really break out as high impact players, and if that is the case, then this team is likely at least a year away. Walker is super young and still very raw offensively as a scorer and shooter, Mathurin was wildly inefficient in the second half of the season last year, Toppin had ample opportunity to get minutes in New York but could never quite find a consistent role in their rotation, and Nembhard doesn’t project as much more than a role player. Not to mention that Haliburton has now failed to play 60 or more games in two of his three seasons as pro, and not that that means he is injury prone necessarily, but it’s just something to monitor as a trend this season. Youth and inexperience do not normally win in this league, so unless one of those young guys takes a leap alongside Haliburton, then this group just as easily could find themselves back in the lottery.

  At the end of the day, I just think Haliburton is too good for this team to be bad. He is the type of guy that makes everyone around him better and majorly impacts winning on the court. We saw that this team could play like a legit playoff team for at least half a season when all their guys were healthy and their struggles really only came once injuries started to pile up. This also is not your typical rebuilding team with a bunch of young guys and not much else, they have legitimately good veteran players and a tenured, experienced head coach. I think this group could be one of the biggest surprises in the league this season and I’m betting on Haliburton to ascend to all-NBA level and a guy like Mathurin to take a leap in his sophomore campaign. This team will be good very soon no matter what, so why can’t it be this year in a weaker Eastern Conference?

  Team Ceiling

  If Haliburton stays healthy, continues ascending the way he has so far in his career, and at least one of their other young guys pops, then watch out, this team could be much better than most think. Not only could playoffs be in their cards this year, but maybe even a top-6 seed to avoid the play-in altogether, especially given the question marks with other teams in the East like Philadelphia with the Harden situation. Just making the playoffs would be a major success, so don’t expect them to be able to do much if they make it there, given their inexperience. First round exit is likely a best case for this team.

  Team Floor

  This team is still super young, so it could be another year or two before playoffs become a realistic goal. They’ll at least compete for a play-in spot, but with a lot of other middling teams at least trying to compete this year (Brooklyn, Chicago, Toronto, etc.), it’s possible that this team mails it in late in the season for lottery positioning and finds themselves picking in the top 10 once again.

18. New Orleans Pelicans

Projected Rotation

G - CJ McCollum (69) / Jose Alvarado

G - Herb Jones / Dyson Daniels

F - Brandon Ingram (34) / Trey Murphy III*

F - Zion Williamson (19) / Naji Marshall

C - Jonas Valanciunas / Lary Nance Jr.

*Will miss the start of the season due to injury

• Read The Pelicans Preview

  Season Outlook

  Last year’s Pelicans team showed us the best and worst of what this team can be. New Orleans started last season 18-8 and, as late as December 12th, sat atop the Western Conference as the number one seed, where they then remained a top-three seed all the way until January 17th. But after that hot start, Zion would only play 8 more games the rest of the season and the Pelicans fell off a cliff, going 15-29 in their next 44 games, including a 10-game losing streak in late January. Their talent is mesmerizing and we’ve seen what they can be, but it remains to be seen if we will ever see this group’s potential come to fruition.

  After this team’s first taste of real success last season, the Pelicans bring back the team’s top 10 players in minutes played from a year ago in hopes of recreating their early season success. Given the unquestioned amount of talent this group has, it makes sense that they’d want to see it play out another year and pray that Zion can finally put together a healthy season, and boy is he due for one. When Zion has been on the court, it’s hard to overstate how truly elite he has been. He has a career average of nearly 26 PPG on a historically great 60.8% from the field. Among the 16 players in the history of the NBA to average 25 PPG for their career, Zion has the highest career FG% ever by more than 6% over the next highest, Wilt Chamberlain. If you loosen the parameters to include 20+ PPG scorers, or even just 15+ PPG, Zion is still number one on the list. His impact is felt from a wins and losses perspective as well, as they were 17-12 last season with him playing and only 25-28 without him. Having him healthy pushes Brandon Ingram to a number two role and CJ McCollum to a number three, slots in the pecking order that they both are ideal for. Behind those guys, the Pelicans have a very deep roster of young, talented, two-way players as well with Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, Jose Alvarado, and Dyson Daniels. Add in veterans like Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance in the front court and they have a deep and talented 9-10 man rotation. The Willie Green hire also looked like it was a hit in his first year with the team and he might be one of the next big things in the coaching world. This team legitimately looked like the next group to take a major leap last year before Zion got hurt and things went awry. They were supposed to be the Kings of last year before the Kings happened. It would not be surprising at all for them to find themselves near the top of the standings once again with a chance to make some real noise in the postseason once there.

  All of that sounds great in theory, but how many times do we have to talk about what this group could be before we start talking about what they’ve truly been instead. The fact of the matter is that Zion cannot be trusted to put together a full season and Ingram hasn’t been much more reliable in recent years either (50 games per year over the past two seasons). Those two have remarkably played only 17 games together over the past two seasons combined. This is doubly bad because 1) this team can’t be expected to perform at a high level without at least one of their two best players for almost 90% of their games played and 2) their lack of reps together add real question marks as to how these two fit together as a tandem on the court. For example, last season, Zion averaged a resounding 28.7 PPG on 17.4 FGAs and 9.7 FTAs when he played without Ingram, but those numbers fell to 22.2 on 14.5 FGA and 6.9 FTAs with him. His 14.5 FGAs are lower than the 15.1 FGAs that Ingram takes when playing with Zion, showing that when they play together, Zion has essentially acted as the 2nd fiddle to Ingram and is the one making a larger sacrifice in terms of shot attempts and scoring. Given Zion’s historically good 60% shooting from the field and ability to draw fouls, this should not be the case if this team wants to be the best version of what they can be. The best version of this team is as Zion as the first option and Ingram as the two, and since these guys have barely been able to play together, they haven’t been able to figure out what that dynamic looks like. Every year it feels like it’s a different issue for Zion. He’s either coming into the year out of shape, sustains a new injury, or his recovery time is inexplicably long. Whatever it may be, if Zion continues to miss time, this team will continue to be stuck in no man’s land.

  You never want to assume injury, but that data doesn’t lie. 29 games in two years is just an outrageously low number for Zion to play and he’s only played even 30 games in a season one single time. This is really not a knock on Zion’s on the court production or this team’s talent overall, but this team just can’t be trusted. If you could guarantee me we’d get even 50-60 games from Zion, then I’d have drastically different feelings about this team. If that finally did happen, then 45-50 wins and a Kings like jump up the standings can’t be ruled out, but I’ll believe it when I see it. I’d rather be wrong if the improbable happens than kick myself for falling for the “what if” again.

  Team Ceiling

  The sky is the limit for this young group if they can stay healthy. A full season of Zion and Ingram would lead to great success for them and a top-three seed would seem more realistic than not. Once in a playoff setting, it’s not crazy to think a healthy version of this team couldn’t win one round, or even two in the right matchup. Second round exit feels like the most plausible ceiling for this group though given the lack of postseason experience for their top two guys.

  Team Floor

  The West is stacked this season, and when that happens, it often is a battle of attrition for who ends up being the odd man out. Unfortunately for this group, that’s a battle they do not have a good record against thus far, so consider them a leading candidate to fall victim. Without a healthy Zion, or even a banged up Ingram, they could miss out entirely on the play-in considering how deep the conference is.

17. Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Rotation

G - Mike Conley (90) / Shake Milton

G - Anthony Edwards (26) / Nickeil Alexander-Walker

F - Jaden McDaniels (78) / Troy Brown Jr.

F - Karl-Anthony Towns (29) / Kyle Anderson

C - Rudy Gobert (55) / Naz Reid

• Read The Timberwolves Preview

  Season Outlook

  After just one playoff appearance in 17 years, the Wolves finally broke through in 2022 off the strength of their young core. After that, they made maybe the most shocking move of last offseason in acquiring Rudy Gobert for a haul that may go down in infamy. Gobert’s first season in Minnesota was anything but a smooth transition, as the team regressed a bit and they never quite ironed out all the kinks. Even with that, they still made the playoffs and played the eventual champion Nuggets extremely tough in the first round in what was a very competitive five-game series.

  The Wolves come into this season with largely the same group they had last year and are banking that another year together to develop chemistry can help this team take a leap. In reality, they’re banking on another year of Anthony Edwards developing, as he has essentially been handed the keys to this being his team. Ant has a chance to be really special. He’s still only 22 years old and is only getting better, as he’s increased his points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, field goal percentage, and three point percentage in each season of his career thus far. As talented as Karl-Anthony Towns is, and boy is he talented, it just doesn’t seem like he’s got enough of that dog in him to lead a team, and so Ant has taken over the alpha role for this group. With that said, KAT makes for a phenomenal number two. Outside of those two, this team just has a ton of really solid role players that compete hard on both ends of the floor. Gobert is the ultimate role player and has built up a Hall-of-Fame career doing exactly that. At the deadline last year, they reunited him with the best pick-and-roll partner he’s had in his career in Mike Conley, and they should greatly benefit from a full season with him. Conley is a much better fit on this team than D’Angelo Russell ever was and is as steady as they come at the point guard position, a good decision-maker, and a high-IQ player. Jaden McDaniels might be the next big thing in the world of 3-and-D players, and they also have Naz Reid, Kyle Anderson, Troy Brown Jr., and Shake Milton. Reid and Anderson were major contributors for this team last year and Milton and Brown were added in the offseason to bolster their shooting. There are a lot of players to like on this team, and if Edwards can develop into the top 10 player that many think he will, then this team could be on the rise very soon, not only in the standings, but as a contender.

  There is definitely a lot to like about this roster, but there is also one thing to really not like about it, and that is the KAT and Gobert pairing. To say it was a clunky fit between these two would be an understatement. On offense, their efficiency plummeted when they shared the court. They had only a 106 offensive rating with the two of them playing together, which was seven full points lower than their 113 offensive rating on the season. That number for the season ranked only 23rd among all NBA teams, and that’s a year after they were top 10 in the NBA in offensive rating without Gobert. On the defensive end of the court, the numbers bared out okay overall, but I’m sure that when Minnesota acquired Gobert they were hoping he would push them into the elite category on that end, and instead, it only bumped them up from 13th in defensive rating to 10th. Plus, regardless of what those numbers say, with KAT being forced to play the four, he was put in many more scenarios where he had to guard smaller and quicker players on the perimeter, an area which he can certainly be a liability. The hope would be that with a year under their belt, they can better adjust to playing together, but the problem is, they only played 27 total games together last season due to KAT missing an extended period, so the continuity has not been there to this point. Chris Finch also would often stagger them throughout games, so the number of reps these guys have together is really not as high as you’d like. Plus, irrespective of fit, KAT has some basketball IQ stuff on the court that just feels like it always comes back to bite this team in the biggest moments and he has shown an unwillingness at times to fully pass the baton to Ant, even if that’s what’s best for the team (it is).

  The Wolves are a really tough team to pin down. On one hand, they have one of the best, young, up-and-coming, potential superstars to pair with a supremely talented offensive big and a collection of good defensive role players. On the other hand, they’re attempting to play two traditional bigs together in a league that is moving away from the traditional big and towards versatile, position-less basketball. How you feel about them might come down to what you care more about, talent or fit? Maybe the fit is so bad that it won’t matter how good Ant is, or maybe Ant will be so good that it won’t matter how clunky the fit is. I tend to lean the former because, while I think Edwards is great, he is still not an all-NBA level player just yet, and until he is, I’m not sure this combo is going to work for this team. Another so-so year with this group and they may be forced to explore moving Towns for a piece that fits the roster a bit better next to Gobert and Ant, because the Gobert contract is almost immovable at this point. This season could go a number of ways for this team and it mostly comes down to how much and how quickly Edwards can continue to ascend.

  Team Ceiling

  If Edwards breaks out as a clear all-NBA guy and the KAT and Gobert combo starts to gel as they get more reps together, then this team could have a very high ceiling in the regular season and certainly could have a Sacramento type leap into the top-three of the standings. With a high seed, they still would likely draw a tough team in the West but would be high enough to avoid the top contenders in round one. A trip to the second round is possible, but that’s where this team maxes out.

  Team Floor

  The KAT-Gobert duo could continue to look like it’s just never going to work and Edwards could continue to improve but just not quite take that full next step quite yet. In this scenario, the Wolves almost certainly find themselves in the play-in for the third straight year. There’s no guarantee they’d be as fortunate as they have been, clinching a playoff spot there the past two years, as the West is very strong this season, so a trip to the lottery can’t be ruled out.

16. Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Rotation

G - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (16) / Tre Mann

G - Lu Dort / Cason Wallace

F - Jalen Williams (74) / Isaiah Joe

F - Josh Giddey (63) / Davis Bertans

C - Chet Holmgren / Jaylin Williams

• Read The Thunder Preview

  Season Outlook

  After making the playoffs 10 out of 11 seasons from 2010 to 2020, the Thunder essentially went full tank-mode, selling off a number of star players in just a few seasons, including Paul George, Russell Westbrook, and then Chris Paul. Since then, they’ve put a major focus on acquiring draft capital, taking on bad contracts from other teams, and investing in the development of their young players. While this was not a team to be taken very seriously over the past few years, last season was different, as they took a pretty significant leap from 24 wins in 2022 up to 40 wins last year, floating right around .500 and being one single play-in win away from the playoffs. This is not your Oklahoma City Thunder of old, this team is a real threat to take another leap this season as well.

  The Paul George trade looked like a haul at the time for the Thunder, but as time has gone on, it just looks better and better. Draft picks aside, the biggest prize of the deal by far was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA had been really good for a few years, but he broke out in a big way last year in his age-24 season. He bumped his scoring by nearly 7 full points all the way up to a ridiculous 31.4 PPG, shot an impressive 51% from the field, and had advanced metrics that suggested that he was in the same class as the absolute best players in the league. This was a massive leap for him, as he went from a young, up-and-coming player to a bonafide all-star and all-NBA contender, achieving first team all-NBA honors last year. Getting a star is the hardest part of taking the next step for a young team, and it seems they’ve checked that box already. Thankfully for them, Sam Presti has been hoarding draft picks for years and done a phenomenal job in building a supporting cast for SGA with Josh Giddey, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and now Cason Wallace, their first round pick this year. Giddey and Williams have already showcased how talented they are, and at only 21 and 22 years old respectively, there is no reason they won’t continue to ascend on both ends of the floor. Williams shined during the second half of last season, and if Giddey ever develops a reliable jump shot, watch out. The Thunder essentially played all of last year without a center and still won 40 games, so a healthy Chet Holmgren should make a significant difference for this team, if not just for his length alone. Chet won’t be asked to do a ton, and the talented infrastructure the Thunder have in place should allow him to focus on the things he is best at — disrupting shots on defense and stretching the floor on offense. He’s looked great in both summer league and preseason, so there’s no doubt he will help this team, even if it’s just as a role player at first. They also bring a bevy of other young players with a bunch of upside. Tre Mann and Isaiah Joe have shown flashes with their scoring and shooting, Lu Dort has been among the best young defenders in the NBA over the past few years, and Cason Wallace looks like he could be the second coming of Jrue Holiday and have an immediate impact for this team, even as a rookie. This team already has their star, they play hard, and they’re loaded with young talent, all things that typically bode well for a breakout season.

  With youth comes inexperience, and this team certainly is inexperienced. The only players on this entire roster that figures to get 20+ minutes per game and have even played a minute in the postseason are Lu Dort and SGA. Dort has only played in one series back in 2020 when he was just a rookie and SGA has been there twice, but lost first round both times. He also wasn’t nearly the player he is now, averaging only 15.1 PPG across his two appearances, and playing in the postseason as a second or third option is not at all the same experience as being the clear-cut, lead guy getting the primary attention from the defense, and we have not seen him in that role quite yet. The sample size on SGA being all-NBA level good is also only one season, so while there aren’t necessarily reasons to think he’ll regress, it might be a little early to crown this guy a bonafide top 10 player when he’s only got one all-star appearance to his name and hasn’t led a team to the postseason on his own. As mentioned with their big man rotation last season, Chet is really the only viable center option on this team (sorry Jaylin Williams and Poku) and I still have concerns on whether he can hold up for a whole season in that role given his frame (7’0” and still less than 200 pounds), especially considering that he’s already missed an entire season.

  All in all, even just making the playoffs would be a resounding success for this team. All of their core guys are extremely young (SGA 25, Giddey 21, Jalen Williams 22, Chet 21, etc.), so they have plenty of time to make their leap, but this team seems so talented on paper that it really could be as soon as this year. They have a legit shot to be majorly ahead of schedule to not only make the postseason but to flirt with a top-6 seed and avoid the play-in completely. They have no realistic expectations or pressure (despite being a media favorite), so playing with house money should work in their advantage. Best of all, if they end up being a bit better than expected, Presti has all the assets in the world to help improve this team. They ultimately have a wide range of outcomes, as this still might be a year too early for them, but their ascension is coming either way, so I’d rather predict it one year too early than one year too late.

  Team Ceiling

  If SGA continues his all-NBA level play, their other core young guys continue to ascend, and Chet is the missing piece in the front court, then this team could be this year’s Kings. A top 4-6 seed really can’t be ruled out, especially if some of the older teams in the conference take it easy in the regular season. If they end up there in the standings, odds are still high they’ll draw a really tough first round matchup, so similar to Sacramento last year, they likely would lose a hard fought series to a more experienced team.

  Team Floor

  They are officially too good to be consider tanking or be anywhere lower than the play-in, so the 9-10 seed range is where their floor likely is, right where they were last year. Still very inexperienced and young, a play-in loss is completely realistic for this group, regardless of which team they match up against.

Tier 6: Non-Serious Playoff Teams

Atlanta Hawks

Sacramento Kings

New York Knicks

Dallas Mavericks

Cleveland Cavaliers

Memphis Grizzlies

All of these teams have been top five seeds within the past few seasons, and all of them have a decent chance to do so again this year. The problem is, that’s really all they’re likely to be. Could they make an unexpected run to the conference finals? Sure, some of them already have. If the seeding broke favorably for them or if there was an injury to one of the top teams, it’s feasible, but that is their ceiling. They are very solid teams with plenty of talent, but they either lack a passable supporting cast or the requisite star-power to leap into true contention.

15. Atlanta Hawks

Projected Rotation

G - Trae Young (18) / Kobe Bufkin

G - Dejounte Murray (46) / Bogdan Bogdanovic

F - Saddiq Bey / AJ Griffin

F - DeAndre Hunter / Jalen Johnson

C - Clint Capela (94) / Onyeka Okongwu

• Read The Hawks Preview

  Season Outlook

  Atlanta burst onto the scene in a massive way in 2021, knocking off the top seeded Sixers and making it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. However, that run always felt like they were a bit ahead of schedule, and after back-to-back mediocre years, that looks to be accurate. And when I say mediocre, I mean mediocre. Last year, not only did they finish the season dead even at .500, but from January 21st when they sat at 24-23 until April 4th when they were 40-39, they went an absurd 33 games straight without being more than one game away from .500. They are now coming off back-to-back years in the play-in where they eventually clinched a playoff spot, just to have largely uncompetitive first round exits to top seeds.

  Despite all their recent mediocrity, the Hawks front office decided to essentially run it back with the same group they had last season. Atlanta returns 9 of their top 10 players in minutes per game from a year ago, with the lone exception being that they finally moved off John Collins in a salary dump to Utah. The Collins loss may hurt in some aspects, as he has been one of their top offensive players over the past few seasons, but his role had become more and more marginalized and he is coming off by far his worst season since becoming a starter, so it makes sense why they felt they could replace his production elsewhere. The Hawks made a big financial investment in Quin Snyder midway through last season and should benefit greatly from a full training camp and offseason to get accustomed to his system. It can be very difficult implementing a whole new system 60+ games into the season, so I wouldn’t put much stake into last year’s results with him at the helm. To be frank, the Hawks haven’t had very good coaching over the past few years, and Snyder is by far the best coach Trae Young has played for. He has a very strong track record with a .581 career win percentage (48-win pace) and seven straight postseason appearances. The hope is that he can help unlock the Trae Young-Dejounte Murray duo, who in their first year together, had some mixed results. Atlanta has complied a very nice group of young guys that will definitely be looked at to take on larger roles with the team this year, most notably Jalen Johnson, AJ Griffin, Onyeka Okongwu, and Saddiq Bey. All of those guys have shown real flashes thus far and a leap from one or multiple of them seems very realistic and could make a major difference. Atlanta has a very talented roster top to bottom with their two all-stars, the up-and-coming young guys, and mainstays like DeAndre Hunter, Clint Capela, and Bogdan Bogdanovic. If the young guys seize their opportunity or the Young-Murray duo gels a bit better, then this team has serious upside to win a lot of games under Snyder and even flirt with a top-four seed.

  However, I’m sure when the Hawks added an all-star backcourt-mate next to Trae, especially one that is known for his defense, they hoped it would help take attention off Trae offensively, cover up for some of his defensive deficiencies, and most importantly, impact winning. However, last season, the addition of Murray really didn’t do any of those things. Trae, despite having another great statistical year, only shot 42.9% from the field and 33.5% from three, both the lowest numbers since his rookie season, so whatever defensive attention Murray may have taken away from him didn’t lead to any sort of bump up in efficiency. On the defensive end, we know that Trae is legitimately one of the worst players in the entire league, and Murray playing next to him helped slightly, but not substantially. After being 26th in the league in defensive rating in 2022, last year with Murray in the fold, they still sat at only 22nd in the league. Defense has really been the main reason for this team’s mediocrity, as they have been in the bottom third of the league in defensive rating every single year that Trae Young has been on the roster, but he is not the only culprit as to why. Guys like DeAndre Hunter, Saddiq Bey, and maybe now even AJ Griffin all get reputation as “3-and-D” players, but the reality is that all of them have majorly lacked the “D” part of that label. If you take a look at the defensive metrics for these guys, you’ll see that none of them are favorable, as Hunter and Griffin both had 119 defensive ratings last year (the same number as Trae Young) and Bey’s wasn’t much better at 117. Regardless of whose fault it is, this team is going to need to be way better on that end of the court if they want to have any shot at improving as a team and avoiding the play-in this year. Additionally, for as great as Trae Young is, there are still questions about if his ball-dominant playing style can be consistently conducive to winning, and reports have stated that people on the team and within the organization have found him both difficult to play with and to coach at times. If the Hawks don’t produce this season, the list of excuses might start to run out for Trae.

  All in all, despite all their talent, this team is going to continue to be mediocre unless they improve defensively. However, there certainly is hope that they can do just that, as Quin Snyder has had a top 10 defense in 6 of his 8 full seasons as a coach, so if there is a man for the job, it might be him. If they can’t do that, then this team is likely to find itself in the exact same spot it’s been in for two years now — fighting for their lives in a play-in game. They are now 3-0 in that setting, so they certainly have the experience to get it done if they do find themselves there, but I am sure this team would like to avoid that scenario altogether and secure a top-6 seed as they did back in 2021. They have the talent and coaching to do it and absolutely should be a playoff team if they stay healthy. It is probably likely that they get to the postseason via the play-in once again and they realistically won’t have much of a chance to make noise in the playoffs once they’re there.

  Team Ceiling

  If they can clean up their defense a bit within Quin Snyder’s system, Trae Young can up his efficiency back to what it was in 2022, and the young guys all prove to be key contributors, then this Hawks team certainly has the talent to avoid the play-in altogether and secure a top-6 seed in the East. If they do that, then they’d likely avoid Boston or Milwaukee in the first round and could have a legit shot to make it to round two. However, they don’t stand a chance against the Bucks or Celtics, which is likely who they’d draw in the second round, so that is where their road would end.

  Team Floor

  If this team continues their defensive struggles and not much changes from the past two years, then mediocrity is where they will continue to live, and a play-in spot feels like a lock for them. They have performed well once they’ve gotten to the play-in in the past, but it’s not crazy to think that that luck could come to an end and they could miss out on the postseason for the first time in three years.

14. Sacramento Kings

Projected Rotation

G - De’Aaron Fox (27) / Davion Mitchell

G - Kevin Huerter (83) / Malik Monk

F - Harrison Barnes / Chris Duarte

F - Keegan Murray / Sasha Vezenkov

C - Domantas Sabonis (25) / Trey Lyles

• Read The Kings Preview

  Season Outlook

  Before last season, the last time the Kings had made the playoffs, De'Aaron Fox had just graduated second grade. The owners of not only the NBA's longest postseason drought but also the longest standing drought in American professional sports, Sacramento finally clinched a playoff spot after 16 long years in the lottery and did so in resounding fashion, clinching a top-three seed in the Western Conference and winning nearly 50 games. After trading away Tyrese Haliburton, a future perennial all-star, for more of a win-now piece in Domantas Sabonis, the pressure will start to kick in for this team to continue to build off what they did last year, and after successfully making a big leap, the Kings will be faced with something they haven’t experienced in nearly two decades — expectations.

  The Kings bring back virtually every major contributor from the NBA’s all-time best offense (by offensive rating) last season. By far the two biggest reasons for the Kings ascension last season were the emergence of De'Aaron Fox as a legitimate difference maker and a full season of Sabonis. Both of them enjoyed by far their best seasons as a pro. Sabonis led the NBA in rebounds per game (12.3), posted career highs in assists per game (7.3), and had a ridiculously efficient season. He shot a career high 37.3% from three (min. 1.0 3PA per game) and 61.5% from the field, an unfathomable number for a guy of his volume that shoots more than just shots at the rim. While Fox has always put up good counting stats, his efficiency and advance metrics were on another level compared to what he was used to, and the eye test backed that up. He shot a career best 51.2% from the field, flipped his advanced stats from negative across the board to positive across the board, and even took home the NBA's inaugural Clutch Player of the Year award. On top of their top two guys, they bring back a really strong supporting cast and a deep bench. Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk were both awesome in their first year with the team and provided elite shooting next to Fox in the backcourt. Keegan Murray was ahead of schedule as a real contributor in his rookie season, starting 78 games, averaging double figure points, and shooting a surprising 41% from three. While he isn't flashy, Harrison Barnes continues to be a very steady and solid two-way player and fifth starter for this team, providing much needed ancillary scoring and production as a catch-and-shoot guy. They also bring back Trey Lyles and Davion Mitchell, both of whom had solid seasons and played key roles off the bench last season. In terms of additions to the team, their two biggest ones were Chris Duarte and Sasha Vezenkov (the reigning EuroLeague MVP), both of whom are scorers and shooters that will fit right in with what they have. Sacramento will once again roll out one of the most impressive and deep 10-man rotations in the NBA this season led by their two all-stars, but unlike last year, they have a taste of the playoffs under their belt.

  Despite bringing back every major contributor from their best season in 16 years, the Kings still come with some major red flags. By far the number one cause for concern with this group is their defense. Last season, they were only 25th in the league defensively with nearly a 117 defensive rating as a team, a truly awful number, not only for a team looking to compete, but for any team at all, as they had the single worst defensive rating by a team to make the playoffs in NBA history and did absolutely nothing to address this issue. The Kings were able to overcome an awful defense last season due to a historically good offense, some of the best crunch time play in the league, the best injury luck in the league, and a strangely down year for a lot of other teams in the West, but all of those factors may not be in their favor next year. Clutch time play is one of the most variable stats in the league year-to-year, and this team's strong play in those situations last season has a good chance to regress, just ask the Phoenix Suns, who went from a +33.4 net rating in clutch time in 2022 to a -2.7 in 2023, despite bring back virtually the same group to start the season. The Kings also had absurd injury luck last year, as all five of their starters played at least 73 games, a number that seems almost impossible to replicate in back-to-back seasons. None of this is even to mention that the West should be significantly stronger this season with teams like Phoenix, Golden State, and the Lakers in much better situations than a year ago, and if those teams elevate, than someone has to fall back in the standings.

  While the Kings bring everyone back and even added a few nice depth pieces, none of those pieces addressed their biggest weakness — defense. They also now have a target on their back and will not catch opponents off guard this year. They have real expectations. Their awful defensive numbers, unsustainable offensive numbers, likely increased variability in clutch time, improbable injury luck, and the conference’s overall improvement all make the Kings a real regression candidate. Can they replicate their offensive production from a year ago or make drastic improvements on defense? It's possible, but consider me a skeptic. But even with all of that, this team should rightfully have playoff expectations once again, but securing a top-three seed again or taking a leap to true contention is a lofty goal.

  Team Ceiling

  If they can continue to be great on offense while taking even a small step forward on the defensive end, then Sacramento should be able to replicate their success of a year ago and compete for a top-four seed, even in the improved West. With a year of playoff experience now under their belt, there's no doubt they could advance past the first round this time around, but they are still a clear step behind the Suns, Nuggets, and Lakers of the world, so anything beyond a second round exit feels like a bit of a stretch for this group.

  Team Floor

  Their offense could regress and their defense could continue to be in the bottom five of the league, and if that happens, then they might tumble down the standings, especially when you consider how improved the West is as a conference. A spot in the play-in is not only realistic, but maybe likely, and if they run into a tough matchup while there, it's not crazy to think this team could find itself where it was for 16 straight years — in the lottery.

13. New York Knicks

Projected Rotation

G - Jalen Brunson (31) / Immanuel Quickley

G - Quentin Grimes / Josh Hart

F - RJ Barrett (84) / Donte DiVencenzo

F - Julius Randle (39) / Jericho Simms

C - Mitchell Robinson / Isaiah Hartenstein

• Read The Knicks Preview

  Season Outlook

  The Knicks have endured a rollercoaster of a few seasons during the Tom Thibodeau era. In his first year as head coach, the team had zero expectations whatsoever to accomplish anything, yet they came out of absolutely no where to secure a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference, playing at a 47-win pace during the shortened 2021 season. The following season, now carrying a bit of expectations to, at the minimum, make the playoffs again, they fell completely flat on their face and majorly regressed, finishing only 37-45 and not even qualifying for the play-in in the East. Then this past season, once again heading into the year with very minimal expectations beyond competing for a play-in spot, the Knicks bounced back once more to majorly exceed expectations, winning 47 games, finishing as the five seed, and this time even winning a playoff series.

  The biggest reasons for the Knicks’ success last season were the emergence of Jalen Brunson and the bounce back year of Julius Randle, two things they will be banking on replicating this season after very minimal roster adjustments this offseason. After leaving Dallas to get his bag in New York, Brunson had a career best season across the board in his first year with team, including posting career highs of 24.0 PPG (an increase of nearly 8 PPG), 6.2 assists per game, and 41.6% from three (on the highest volume of his career). He truly elevated his game from a solid, above average starter in Dallas to a borderline all-star, and he absolutely shined in the postseason as well. Randle on the other hand, after an awful 2022 season, reverted back to his 2021 form in which he made the all-NBA team, posting nearly identical stats to that season on way to his second all-NBA honors. After those two guys (plus RJ Barrett as the bonafide 3rd banana on the team), the Knicks bring back a deep group of strong role players that fit really well with what Thibs and the Knicks want to do. Immanuel Quickley nearly took home the Sixth Man of the Year award last year after having his best season, both offensively and defensively. They also have a bevy of wings to mix and match with in Josh Hart, Quentin Grimes, and Donte DiVencenzo, who was their big free agency addition. All three of those guys bring shot making, floor spacing, and defense, and having Hart in particular gave them a massive boost last year on both ends. They also bring back the big man duo of Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein, neither of which are spectacular, but both solid. Overall, this team isn’t flashy or sexy, but their 9-man rotation is very solid and is among the deeper groups we have across the league, a formula that typically leads to regular season success.

  Even with their deep roster, the Knicks still lack maybe the number one prerequisite to contend in this league — star power. They are the only team in this tier or higher that doesn’t have a top-25 guy on their roster and I’m not sure anyone currently on the team will ever get there. For as great as Brunson is, he just isn’t suited to be the number one option for a team with any realistic expectations. He also likely won’t improve too much beyond what we saw last season, as surprisingly enough, he is already 27 years old, and it’s not common for guys that make their first all-star game at that age (if he makes it this year) to develop into the kind of player you typically can build a team around. As for Randle, who actually has made not only an all-star game, but two all-NBA teams now, he is in the same boat. He is already 28 years old, and the 2021 and 2023 versions of him are likely to be the best version of what we see out of him. That is not even to mention that sandwiched in between those two great seasons was a year in which he was one of the worst high-volume players in the entire NBA, shooting only a putrid 41% from the field, a shocking number for a 6’8” player, and his defensive effort wasn’t much better. Oh, and in the playoffs, he has somehow been even worse. In 15 career postseason games, he has shot only 34% from the field, 28% from three, and has more total turnovers than assists. There is an argument to be made that he is the single worst high-volume postseason performer in NBA history. To make matters worse on their hunt to find a true star, RJ Barrett has just not progressed how you’d like so far in his short career, as he’s struggled from outside (career 34% from three), he is a poor decision maker in general, and the advanced stats are not kind to his game. In year five now, it may be now or never for him.

  There is a pretty wide range of outcomes for the Knicks heading into this year. They certainly could be a candidate for regression, given the widely variable year-to-year performances by Randle, and if he plays anything like the 2022 version of himself, then this team likely won’t sniff the playoffs. But now that he’s played at a high level multiple times, it feels more realistic that he can continue to replicate it, and pairing that with another strong Brunson season, a solid and deep bench, and a coach in Thibs that will maximize their regular season effort, there is certainly a realistic path for this team to make another run at a top-four seed in the East. Regardless of where they finish in the regular season standings, they should not be viewed as even a dark horse contender, as they simply do not have the requisite star power at the top of the team to have any chance against a team like the Bucks or Celtics in a playoff series, as long as those teams are healthy.

  Team Ceiling

  If Brunson and Randle can put together seasons comparable to what they had last year, then this team should be able to compete for a top four seed in the East. If they draw favorable matchups in the playoffs, they absolutely could find themselves in the second round again, but their only shot at a Conference Finals would be if somehow the bracket worked out where they could avoid Boston and Milwaukee until then. With that being unlikely, a round two loss feels like this team’s ceiling, just as we saw last year.

  Team Floor

  If Randle plays like his 2022 self and Barrett continues to stagnate offensively, then things could look way more similar to their 2022 failed season, even if Brunson plays how we know he is capable of. In that scenario, the Knicks would likely find themselves in the play-in, as a 9-10 seed, and given how we know Randle performs in postseason settings, I certainly wouldn’t like their chances in a one-game elimination game on the road. Regressing and missing the postseason altogether is certainly on the table for this group.

12. Dallas Mavericks

Projected Rotation

G - Luka Doncic (4) / Seth Curry

G - Kyrie Irving (22) / Tim Hardaway Jr.

F - Josh Green / Oliver-Maxence Prosper

F - Grant Williams / Maxi Kleber

C - Dereck Lively II / Dwight Powell

• Read The Mavericks Preview

  Season Outlook

  After increasing their win percentage every single season since drafting Luka Doncic in 2018 (and topping out at 52 wins in 2021-22), the Mavericks took a massive step back last year in what was largely a disaster of a season for them. On February 10th, the Mavs sat at 31-26 as the four seed in the Western Conference, looking poised to build on their recent Western Conference Finals run, but things just went completely south from there. They would lose 5 of their next 6 games and finished the season 7-18 over the final 25 games of the year, not only falling out of the playoff picture, but completely out of the play-in altogether. They also added Kyrie Irving midseason in hopes to finally find a legit costar to pair with Luka, but that did not help their slide at all, as the Mavs continued to crater even with the Kyrie addition, leaving major question marks about the overall fit of those two stars on this team.

  There are a number of different reasons you could point to for why the Mavericks were such a mess last season but there is no reason more prominent than their defense. Despite all that Luka does for them offensively, the strength of their 2021-22 team, a team that won 52 games and made the WCF, was their defense. They were 6th in the NBA defensively with a very impressive 109 defensive rating that year, and this past year, they followed it up by finishing 24th in the NBA in defense, including allowing a full 7.3 more points per 100 possessions, good for nearly a 117 defensive rating. They went from a team that relied on their defense to win games for them to a team that couldn’t get stops at all, and while you might be able to skate by with a middle of the pack defense, you just will not win games at a high level in this league with a defense in the bottom five. On top of their defensive woes, the early returns on the Kyrie-Luka pairing were not great. They had an abysmal 5-11 record in games that Kyrie and Luka shared the court together, certainly not the kind of boost they were hoping for when they acquired him near the deadline last year. Luka and Kyrie still both got their stats, but with both of them being mostly ball-dominant scorers, at times it felt like a lot of “your turn, my turn” with the two of them and not enough fluid chemistry playing off each other in the flow of the game. Additionally, the Mavs front office has done a really poor job of finding quality talent to pair with their stars. They let Brunson walk for nothing and, outside of their top two guys, they don’t have another player on the roster that even sniffs the top 100 or has any sort of all-star type potential. Seth Curry and Tim Hardaway Jr. are their next best offensive creators, but they both are undersized defensive liabilities, neither can play big minutes next to both Luka and Kyrie, and they are on the wrong side of 30. Their big man rotation is also still a major question mark. Dwight Powell has been fine giving them 20 minutes per game but he’s now 32 and offers virtually nothing on the offensive end. They did add Richaun Holmes and Dereck Lively II, but Holmes couldn’t get minutes over Alex Len in Sacramento and Lively is still only 19 years old and came along extremely slowly as a freshman at Duke.

  Even with all of that, there is reason to be optimistic that Dallas will be more similar to the previous iterations of this team than last year’s version. While the first look at Kyrie and Luka together wasn’t great, it is really tough to write them off completely after just 16 games together and they should benefit greatly from a full offseason and training camp to develop some on-court chemistry. Kyrie is far and away the best teammate Luka has ever had and I think this duo will be extremely deadly offensively when it’s all said and done. If Luka could have real success with Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie, then it would be foolish to think he can’t make it work with Kyrie. Additionally, their overall personnel moves did seem like general upgrades across the board. The addition of Seth Curry should be a plus, as we have already seen him be very successful in the past next to Luka. While their big man rotation is no sure thing, at least they have more options now. Last season it was pick your poison with either Christian Wood, who was good offensively but a disaster on defense, Dwight Powell, who was solid defensively but a zero on offense, or JaVale McGee, who was so bad that they decided to eat the last two years on his deal. This year, they have a bit more to pick and choose from with Holmes and Lively, and if Lively specifically can realize even some of his potential this season, he may end up being their best option. Even with his slow start at Duke, he was a truly elite shot-blocker and rim-protector in college and a relatively skilled rim-runner on offense. They also have a number of other high upside players on the team, such as Josh Green and Jaden Hardy, both whom played well in spurts last season and should have an opportunity to get more minutes this year. Either of those two breaking out in a meaningful way would go a very long way for this team, especially Josh Green, if he can turn into a good 3-and-D player.

  Ultimately, the biggest reason for optimism in Dallas is Luka. He is as good of a one-man offense as we have in the NBA and the way he manipulates and controls the game on that end give you a very high floor as a team all on its own. He is a legit top five player in the NBA, and anytime you have a top five guy, you have a chance to knock off anyone. We saw him drag an unimpressive group to the WCF in 2022, and if their defense can hold up, then there’s no reason to think that he can’t do it again, especially with a more accomplished second option next to him in Kyrie. However, if the defense is no better, then this group might find itself in a similar situation to last year — fighting for their play-in lives. Either way, while Luka can carry a team in any given round, there are going to be questions about if his heliocentric style of play is sustainable across an entire playoff run. The only real examples of someone as ball-dominant as him we’ve seen in the modern era are Russell Westbrook and Harden, both of whom are notorious for early playoff exits. Even if the defense improves and the role guys perform better, it is yet to be seen if a player with his usage rate can take a team to the Finals, and given their unproven and lackluster supporting cast, it’s best to assume that type of ceiling is off the table for this group.

  Team Ceiling

  There’s a world where the Kyrie-Luka pairing turns out to be arguably the best one-two punch we have in the league, a lot of their younger supporting players take a leap, and their defense reverts back to what it was in 2022. If those things were to happen, then a top 3-4 seed is certainly in play for Dallas and another trip all the way to the WCF couldn’t be ruled out Unfortunately, I don’t think the supporting pieces are good enough to make it any further than that, even if Luka were to put on an all-time performance, so they are still probably a couple ancillary pieces away from Finals contention.

  Team Floor

  We basically saw this team’s floor last season. The defense was a mess, the Kyrie-Luka pairing looked clunky, and they just didn’t have the sufficient support guys next to their stars. In this scenario, the play-in looks like a best case, and there are no guarantees once you get there in the loaded West. It’s not crazy to think this team could miss out on the playoffs altogether again if things don’t play out their way.

11. Cleveland Cavaliers

Projected Rotation

G - Darius Garland (32) / Ricky Rubio*

G - Donovan Mitchell (15) / Caris LeVert

F - Max Strus / Isaac Okoro

F - Evan Mobley (45) / Georges Niang

C - Jarrett Allen (73) / Dean Wade

*Will miss the start of the season in order to tend to mental health

• Read The Cavaliers Preview

  Season Outlook

  Life without LeBron was not easy for Cleveland the first time around, as they averaged only 24 wins per season in the four years he was in Miami, owning the NBA’s worst record in the league over that span. When he left the second time, it started out equally as grim, as they averaged only 20 wins over the next three years but, with the drafting of Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, it quickly turned around. The flashes this team showed during the 2021-22 season were enough to give the front office confidence to make a big splash, and that’s exactly what they did last offseason in acquiring Donovan Mitchell. With Mitchell on the team this past season, the Cavs won 50+ games for for the first time without LeBron James on the roster since 1993 and that big acquisition was a huge reason why. Unfortunately, the Cavs fell completely flat in the postseason, leaving a very bad taste in the mouth of many people regarding this team.

  The Cavs bring back their same core-four players (Mitchell, Garland, Mobley, and Allen) from a year ago and it makes sense given all of their ages and the resounding success this group had in their first season together, particularly in the regular season. This team rode the success of their defense behind Evan Mobley’s second place finish in the Defensive Player of the Year voting and Jarrett Allen’s rim protection and paint presence, which led to Cleveland owning the number one defense in the entire NBA as a team a year ago. Offensively, the addition of Mitchell allowed for them to jump from 20th in the league in offensive rating all the way into the top 10. It sure helped that Mitchell enjoyed, without a doubt, his best season as a pro, posting career highs across the board with 28.3 PPG and 48.4% / 38.6% / 86.7% shooting splits, the best advances stats of his career, and a career low in turnovers per game. Next to him, Garland continued to shine as the lead guard and played at an all-star level once again, showcasing his elite outside stroke (41% from three) and his dual threat ability as a scorer and facilitator (21.6 PPG and 7.8 assists). Easily their biggest hole last season was at the small forward position, where they rotated out a few different options, most notably, Cedi Osman, Caris LeVert, and Isaac Okoro, all of whom are fine players in their own right, but the situation often led to a pick your poison of offense vs. defense. Okoro is a good defender but only a 33% career three point shooter with very limited offense creativity. LeVert on the other hand is very creative offensively but is not good defensively and, despite shooting a career high 39% from 3PT last season, is best maximized when he isn’t marginalized to a "stand in the corner” guy on offense. To address this, they let Osman go and added two wings that better fit what they need at the position in Max Strus and Georges Niang. Both are significantly better shooters than LeVert, Okoro, or Osman, with Strus 37% for his career and Niang at 40%. They both are also solid defensively and, at the very least, they will get Cleveland more options at the position. This team is already very good and, with how young their top four guys are (Mobley 22, Garland 23, Allen 25, and Mitchell 27), there is no reason to think that all four won’t continue to improve, especially Garland and Mobley, both of whom have all-NBA level potential.

  Despite how much of a resounding success last season was for this group, the way they went out in the postseason raised some major concerns for them moving forward. It’s not so much that they lost, but how they lost. They came into their first round matchup vs. the Knicks as pretty comfortable favorites to win the series. They had the better record, home court advantage, a much better net rating during the season, and the presumed best player in the series. Despite all that, they still fell flat on their faces, losing in an ugly five games, including two losses on their home court. In the series, Mitchell, Garland, and LeVert were all inefficient from the field and Mobley and Allen got completely manhandled by New York’s bigs. This series highlighted a lot of this team’s flaws, including some of Mitchell’s Westbrook-like behaviors and his tunnel-vision-like play at times, as well as Mobley’s major offensive limitations. Mobley’s game on that end is still very underdeveloped, his jump shot has a very long way to go (21.6% from three and 67.4% from the line), and he really struggles as a shot creator. If he can’t ever develop a reliable jump shot, then I am not convinced that him and Allen are a good fit together. Playing them both clogs the lane for the guards and creates too poor of spacing for a 2023 offense to operate. Additionally, this team is very thin at multiple positions. Their only backup bigs are Dean Wade (career 5.1 PPG), a 32-year-old Tristan Thompson who was working at ESPN last season, and Damion Jones, who has been on 6 teams in 5 years. They are equally thin at backup guard with Ricky Rubio away from the team, leaving Ty Jerome as the only true backup point guard, a guy that has bounced around to now his 4th team in only 5 years in the league. This will likely force LeVert to play a lot of backup point guard, something he can do in spurts, but not something he should be relied upon to do for a full season.

  Even though their postseason performance as a team last season was concerning-ly bad, given their inexperience and it being this group’s first run at the playoffs, I’m willing to give them a pass and be optimistic they can be better next time around. All in all, Cleveland has a lot to be excited about given the youth of this roster, the talent they have, and how good they were in the regular season in their first full year together. They made some impact additions to a roster that should also benefit from some internal development, so there’s no reason to think they shouldn’t be just as good this year as they were last year, if not better. However, if they replicate their postseason performance, then it’s going to become a trend, and they may need to consider making some personnel changes to better optimize their talent. Given the youth of this team and the fact that they still have major holes on the roster, they should not be viewed as real threats to win the East, but should once again be very strong in the regular season and could certainly give Boston or Milwaukee a tough fight come playoff time.

  Team Ceiling

  With how young most of their top guys are, internal growth is certainly a realistic expectation, and if Garland and Mobley continue to improve, then this team could definitely improve upon their 51 wins last season and flirt with a top-three seed in the East. Come playoff time, I just don’t think they have the experience or offensive firepower to hang with teams like Boston or Milwaukee, but would have a legitimate shot versus anyone else in the East in a series. If the matchups break right (i.e. the Bucks and Celtics end up on the same side of the bracket), then Cleveland could have a shot at making the Eastern Conference Finals, but that is where their journey would likely end.

  Team Floor

  This team should have a pretty high floor. The East isn’t nearly as deep as the West this year and the Cavs have all the makings of a team that will succeed in the regular season. Barring injury, this team should be able to easily avoid the play-in and at least secure a top-6 seed. Come playoff time, after what we saw last year, there’s no question they could fall flat to an inferior team once again. It can’t be ruled out that they replicate what they did vs. the Knicks this year as well.

10. Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Rotation

G - Ja Morant+ (14) / Derrick Rose

G - Marcus Smart (70) / Luke Kennard

F - Desmond Bane (47) / Ziaire Williams

F - Jaren Jackson Jr. (35) / Brandon Clarke*

C - Xavier Tillman Sr. / Santi Aldama

+Will miss first 25 games of season due to suspension

*Will miss start to season due to injury

#Steven Adams is not listed, as he will miss the entire 2023-24 season due to injury

• Read The Grizzlies Preview

  Season Outlook

  For years now, the Grizzlies have been viewed by many as having one of the best young cores in the entire NBA, with Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. all 25 or younger, signed to long-term rookie extensions, and looking like top 50 players in the league already. After being in the playoff picture nearly the entire 2019-20 season before losing in the bubble play-in, they finally snuck into the postseason in 2020-21 as the 8 seed, and have been playoff mainstays since then, including back-to-back 50 win seasons, securing the second seed in the Western Conference both years. This team looked to be on a linear upwards trajectory, but with Ja Morant’s off the court issues, they certainly went through some growing pains last season, which led to an ugly first round exit to the 7-seeded Lakers in which they lost by 40 points in the elimination game 6.

  The Grizzlies have mostly relied on internal development and growth to help improve the team over the years, having let solid role players like Grayson Allen, Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and De’Anthony Melton all move on from the team without much of a return in terms of immediate contributors. That philosophy finally changed a bit this offseason, as they did make a bit of a splash in trading for Marcus Smart and they now have the two most recent winners of the Defensive Player of the Year award on their team. Smart will be a great addition to this group and fits in perfectly with the “grit and grind” motto that has represented this organization for years. The Grizzlies have been a top 6 defense in each of the past three years (including second last season), and the departure of Dillon Brooks was sure to hurt that. But adding Smart should completely offset that loss on the defensive end as their new go-to perimeter defender. Offensively, Smart will certainly be an upgrade over Brooks as well, who should be addition by subtraction on that end. Smart is unquestionably better as a facilitator, ball-handler, and I can’t believe I’m saying this about Smart, but also as a decision maker (yes, Brooks was really that bad). Additionally, Smart will bring some much needed leadership as a guy that can hold Ja and the other young guys accountable and provide some much needed playoff experience, as he’s played in 5 of the past 7 ECFs. All in all, the Grizzlies now come into the year with an extremely strong starting five, including a budding superstar in Ja Morant (27 and 7 averages over the past 2 years), a 20+ PPG scorer and one of the absolute best shooters in the whole league (career 42.5% from three) in Bane, an elite rim-protecter and shot-blocker (led the NBA in blocks for two straight years) that stretches the floor and made an all-star team last season in JJJ, and now add to it with a hard-nosed and gritty defender with loads of playoff battle scars in Smart.

  This season certainly won’t be a cakewalk for this team though, as their best player, Ja Morant, is set to miss the first 25 games of the season due to a suspension for his multiple gun related incidents off the court. Additionally, Steven Adams is now out for the entire season due to a knee injury. Strangely enough, the Grizzlies wen’t 20-5 without Ja during the 2021-22 season, but that always felt like a fluke, as they were only 11-10 without him last season. Without Ja, their offense coul.d get ugly. Bane is a really good player and has continued to improve and impress as an offensive option, specifically as a shot creator and initiator, but he still is no where near being a viable first option on a playoff team. This also will have a ripple effect on the pecking order, forcing JJJ to become the second option, something he likely isn’t suited to do in a full-time role either. Perhaps most terrifying of all is the idea that Marcus Smart is going to be the lead guard with the ball in his hands with Ja out and, unlike in Boston, he is not going to have clear-cut, all-star level offensive options to defer to — which even when he had that, he often failed to defer frequently enough. If Smart becomes too featured as an offensive option for this team, the results are likely not going to be great, as he is a sub-40% shooter from the field for his career and that was exclusively as a complementary piece in Boston. The Adams loss is not minor either, as he is one of the best offensive rebounding bigs (5.1 offensive boards per game) in the entire league, which matters given how poor of a rebounder JJJ is (6.8 rebounds per game total). Last year, The Grizzlies were 28-14 when Adams played and only 23-17 when he didn’t, which is a pretty drastic drop off. Additionally, there are now real questions about Memphis’ depth given these absences. Luke Kennard and Xavier Tillman Sr. (only 6’8” with a career 6.2 PPG) will likely be forced into the starting lineup with Ja and Adams out and there won’t be a lot of proven commodities to find on this bench, as Brandon Clarke is still recovering from his major injury and will be a non-factor to start the season. After that, they have Ziaire Williams (7.2 career PPG), David Roddy (6.7), Santi Aldama (7.6), John Konchar (4.6), Jake LaRavia (3.0), and a 35-year-old Derrick Rose, who managed only 12.5 minutes per game in 24 games for the Knicks last season. If they don’t get one or two of those young guys to break out into legit contributors for this team, then depth could be a real issue for a team that will be without its best player for 30% of the season and its starting center for the entire year.

  Ultimately, Memphis has some great young talent but still too many question marks going into this year to be taken seriously as a legit threat in the West. They might find themselves in a sizable hole to start the year while Ja is out and, with how deep the conference is, that might be the difference between being a top-four seed and a trip to the play-in. The Ja situation aside, I’m still very skeptical that this team has the proven depth to make a deep run, or more importantly, the requisite star-power offensively. I don’t think Bane or JJJ are sufficient number twos to contend, unless your number one is a Jokic or Giannis, which Ja is not. Consider this team likely a low-end playoff team with low upside come postseason time.

  Team Ceiling

  The Grizzlies have proven they can stay afloat without Ja in the past, and if they do so again and then he comes back and gives them a boost, then this team could contend for a top-four seed still, as they have the past two years. Come postseason time, I think a trip to the Western Conference Finals could be in play if they get the right matchups, but anything beyond that might be a stretch, as they are likely still a year or two away from being true Finals contenders.

  Team Floor

  Without Ja, they could certainly get off to a slow start, and then integrating Ja midseason with a new backcourt-mate in Smart could take a little bit of time chemistry-wise. If that does happen, given how deep the West is, there’s no doubt this team could find itself deep in the play-in mix towards the end of the season, hovering in the 7-9 seed range. From there, I trust them to get the job done and at least make the playoffs, but a first round exit could be waiting for them if they’re forced to play one of the top teams, like Denver or Phoenix, in round one.

Tier 5: Can’t Get Out of Their Own Way

Philadelphia 76ers

Los Angeles Clippers

These teams check basically all the boxes for contention: an MVP-level player? Check. A legitimate co-star? Check. A good supporting cast around them? Check. A championship head coach? Check. The problem is, they are their own worst enemy. Whether it be injuries, difficult personalities, playoff underperformance, or a combination of all of them — year after year, these teams find a way to fall short in the postseason. Until we see them finally put it all together, it’s going to be very hard to trust them, and at this point, it’s fair to assume that they never will get over that hump, at least not with their current cores.

9. Philadelphia 76ers

Projected Rotation

G - James Harden* (21) / Patrick Beverly

G - Tyrese Maxey (48) / De’Anthony Melton

F - Tobias Harris (79) / Kelly Oubre Jr.

F - PJ Tucker / Furkan Korkmaz

C - Joel Embiid (6) / Paul Reed

*Currently away from the team due to trade demand

• Read The 76ers Preview

  Season Outlook

  It has been a long time since “The Process” began in Philadelphia and, to an extent, it’s paid off. Since Embiid’s first healthy season with the team back in 2017-18, the 76ers have played at 50-win pace, secured a top-four seed, and made it past the first round in 5 of 6 seasons. They’ve had as much regular season success as anyone in that span, as they have the NBA’s second best record during that time frame at 300-173 (.634 win%), behind only the Bucks. The problem is, that success has not translated to the postseason in the slightest, as they have yet to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals once in the Embiid era. They’ve tried a number of different stars next to Embiid — Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, James Harden, and the results have been the same. Year after year, they put together a strong regular season before crumbling on the biggest stage. To make matters worse, they find themselves in a sort of stand off with James Harden, as he has said he “will never be a part of an organization with Daryl Morey” again and is currently away from the team, leaving major question marks on what this season might hold for both him and the team.

  Despite all the Harden rumors, the 76ers seem prepared to head into the season with their roster in its current form, and to an extent, it makes some sense. Not only does Harden’s trade market appears to be rather barren, but if fully in tact, this roster has nearly everything you’d want in a team looking to contend. Joel Embiid has played at a legitimate MVP level for three full years now, as he’s won two scoring titles, finished top-two in MVP all three years, averaged a ridiculous 30.9 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assists on 52.1% from the field over that span, and finally captured that elusive MVP award last season. He has truly established himself as a borderline top-five player and a perennial MVP candidate in this league and, as long as Embiid is on the team, the 76ers will have a very healthy floor in the regular season. After him, it can’t be overlooked how solid of a season Harden had last year as the clear-cut number-two on this team. He led the league in assists (10.7 per game) and had one of his more efficient seasons in a while, including his highest three point percentage (38.5%) since his days in OKC. Tyrese Maxey has the looks of a perennial 20+ PPG scorer after posting elite efficiency for a small guard (48.1% from the field and 60.5% TS) and shooting a ridiculous 43.1% from three over the past two years. Tobias Harris is still a more than qualified fourth option and they have good depth behind those guys, returning solid role players in P.J. Tucker, De’Anthony Melton, and Paul Reed, while also bringing in Kelly Oubre Jr. and Patrick Beverly to round out the rotation. They also finally let go of Doc Rivers this offseason in favor of another championship head coach in Nick Nurse — a move that certainly should be viewed as an upgrade. On paper, the 76ers should have everything you’d want to contend — an MVP level talent in his prime, a bonafide all-star and top 25 guy to pair next to him, overqualified third and fourth options, solid depth across the board behind them, and a proven championship head coach.

  Unfortunately for Philadelphia, this game is not played on paper. Despite all of their talent, this team has fallen flat in the postseason year after year. Not only have they failed to make it past the second round at any point in the Embiid era, they haven’t proven they can beat an even relatively quality opponent in the playoffs. During this 6-year run, the best team they’ve knocked off in the postseason is a Toronto team led by Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet — a decent group, but a team no where even remotely close to contention. And other than that, they’ve beaten a 44-win Heat team led by Goran Dragic, a 42-win Nets team led by D’Angelo Russell, a 34-win Wizards team led by Westbrook and Beal, and a 45-win Nets team led by Mikal Bridges. That’s it. All of that is to say that they are yet to beat a team with a top-20 player on its roster. Why have they so consistently come up short? Well it starts with their two stars. We know all about Harden’s postseason struggles. Just last year versus Boston alone, he had games of 2/14, 3/14, and 4/16 from the field, including three games with more turnovers than assists. He is now 1-9 in his last 10 elimination games and has 46 career playoff games shooting 30% or worse from the field. While Embiid has been cut a lot of slack over the years for his postseason play, his resume is starting to rival that of Harden’s with each year that passes. In the playoffs, his scoring drops by an average of nearly 4 points, his field goal percentage drops by over 4%, his three point percentage drops to a putrid 28%, and he has had more turnovers than assists in everything single postseason run of his career. He now stands alone as the only MVP in league history to never have a Conference Finals appearance and, now headed into his age-30 season, that is not a stat you want to stand alone with. All of that is assuming Harden eventually does come back to play and is civil, but we still don’t even know how that situation will play out. We’ve seen him make it extremely toxic in both Houston and Brooklyn when he wanted out, as he’s come into the year out of shape, unmotivated, and putting in next to no effort on the court until he gets what he wants.

  Ultimately, we won’t really know what the Sixers can be until we have clarity on the Harden situation, but whether he’s traded or not, I’m not convinced it will help the team very much. If he is traded, it likely will be for pennies on the dollar, as his value appears next to nothing due to both his age (34 years old) and the fact that he’s now asked to be traded from three different teams in four years. If all they get back is some lackluster picks and salary fillers (à la Robert Covington or Marcus Morris), then this team will be no where near contention. Alternatively, if they hold on to Harden, I am terrified that he will make their life a living hell on and off the court. We’ve seen the negative impact a demotivated James Harden can have on a basketball team and I see no reason why this situation would be any different. If a compromised version of Harden shows up, not only will the 76ers likely have no shot at contending in the East, but he could seriously tank their regular season performance as well. Even if the Harden situation was a non-factor, how many times do we have to see him and Embiid fall flat before we accept that as what this team is? Could they legitimately contend if Harden was 100% happy and motivated and him and Embiid played to the ability we know they can for an entire postseason? Absolutely, they’d be a real threat to win not only the East, but the Finals as well. But until we see that, I just don’t see any way you could realistically trust this team.

  Team Ceiling

  If everything clicked perfectly for this team, Harden decides he is ready to prove himself, Embiid shows up in the playoffs with vintage MVP performances, and Nick Nurse helps makes the necessary adjustments that Doc Rivers could not — then the sky is the limit for this team. They would have a real shot to knock off both Boston and Milwaukee, and could make it all the way to the NBA Finals. However, consider me a skeptic that that reality is truly even a reality at all, and perhaps a trip to their first ECF is a more realistic goal.

  Team Floor

  It could get ugly for this team. If Harden tanks their year or they offload him for non-impact pieces just to cut their losses, then they could potentially slide down the standings into the 6-7 seed conversation and be in real danger of finding themselves in the play-in. Ultimately, Embiid should at least get them to the postseason but there are no promises after that, a first round exit in a tough matchup, similarly to their 2020 fate, is not off the table.

8. Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Rotation

G - Russell Westbrook (92) / Bones Hyland

G - Terrance Mann / Norman Powell

F - Paul George (17) / Nic Batum

F - Kawhi Leonard (10) / Robert Covington

C - Ivica Zubac / Mason Plumlee

• Read The Clippers Preview

  Season Outlook

  Kawhi Leonard and Paul George’s tenure with the Clippers has mostly been defined by “what ifs.” What if COVID never hit and the 2020 season had played out normally, rather than in the bubble? What if Kawhi didn’t tear his ACL in 2021 during the best postseason run in franchise history? What if PG didn’t get COVID right before their play-in game in 2022? What if Kawhi made it through the entire first round series against the Suns this past year after going up 1-0? The team has been truly great when both of them play, as they have a 83-35 record (.703 win%) when both suit up, good for 58-win pace over a full season. But because either one or both of them are almost always out, the team has yet to win 50 games in a season with this group and only have one Western Conference Finals appearance to show for it.

  While there have been extensive James Harden rumors for the Clippers, as of now, they seem content running it back with last year’s team. They retained all of their top free agents (other than Eric Gordon) and chose to not make any other major additions. Coming into their 5th season with this core, both Kawhi and PG are reportedly fully healthy to start the year, so it looks as if their front office thinks this team can contend as is and that all they need is a healthy season with their two stars. It’s not hard to understand why they feel that way, because even though Kawhi started slowly this past season after coming back from his ACL injury, once the calendar year turned to 2023, he was back to his old, dominant self. From early January on, Kawhi averaged 27.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.0 assists on a ridiculous 52.6% from the field and an even more absurd 46.8% from three-point range. And even though he only made it through two playoff games, he looked like the best player on the court in those games, averaging 34.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 2.0 steals on 54.5% from the field and an unreal 60% from three. He put real fear in the eyes of Phoenix early in that series and they might have had a legit shot to win if he stayed healthy, even without Paul George. Him and PG still form one of the absolute deadliest duos in the entire NBA, both offensively and defensively, and the Clippers have a great amount of depth behind them as well. Westbrook looked like a totally different player with the Clippers than he had as a Laker, particularly in the postseason. They also have a plethora of wings to plug and play with, all of whom are good shooters and compete defensively in Terance Mann (38% career from three), Norman Powell (39%), Marcus Morris (38%), Nic Batum (37%), and Robert Covington (36%). They also finally have different options at center besides just Zubac or playing small ball now that they will have a full season of Mason Plumlee in the fold. Add in a backup guard with mini-Lou Will potential in Bones Hyland and you have a ton of options to mix and match. On top of all that, they have one of the absolute best coaches in the NBA in Ty Lue — an NBA Finals winner, one of the absolute best at making in-series postseason adjustments, and the man who led the Clippers to their first Western Conference Finals appearance in franchise history in just his first season at the helm.

  All of this sounds great on paper, but the Clippers’ two star players are among the most injury prone that we have in the entire league. Since Kawhi Leonard and Paul George joined the team back in the 2019 offseason, they have played only a combined 118 games together, for an average of less than 30 per season. And unfortunately, it’s been arguably worse in the postseason. Since the 2020-21 season, the Clippers have had one single playoff series in which both PG and Kawhi made it through the entire series healthy. You normally can’t assume injury, but at a certain point, you can kind of can. How many years do we have to watch it play out the same way before we just assume that come playoff time this team is going to be without at least one of PG or Kawhi, if not both? Aside from health, this team does still have some question marks overall as well. It remains to be seen if a Russell Westbrook team can realistically compete at a high level in the postseason, as we simply just have not seen it, especially not as he’s gotten into his mid-30s. Also, a lot of their 3-and-D wings are getting a bit older and aren’t nearly the defenders they used to be, particularly Morris (34 years old), Batum (34), and Covington (32). All three of them teetered in and out of the rotation at different points in the season last year and, at their age, just can’t be relied on to be consistent contributors on both ends of the floor.

  Ultimately, just like every year for this team, health is going to decide their season. While they can still win games in the regular season with just one of their stars, if Kawhi or PG miss extended time and/or aren’t healthy for the postseason, then this team has virtually zero chance of being a contender that can be taken seriously. If by some miracle, both the two of them are healthy for at least the majority of the year and into the playoffs, then who knows what they could accomplish. They’d have as high as ceiling as any team in the West — with elite coaching, a bonafide top 10 guy, an all-NBA level costar, a solid and deep bench, and lots of playoff experience up and down the roster. They have all the talent and pieces to contend, but given the injury risk, I wouldn’t count on it ever coming to fruition.

  Team Ceiling

  If fully healthy, this team could not only be a top seed in the regular season but could seriously make a run at the Finals. They are one of the few teams with the talent and pieces to knock off anyone in the West, including the Lakers, the Suns, or even the Nuggets. The only thing is, this team’s best case seems more unlikely than most other teams’ based on this group’s injury history.

  Team Floor

  We’ve seen what injuries can do to this team, as they’ve turned this talented group into a team fighting for their lives to avoid the play-in. There’s no doubt that if Kawhi and/or PG miss time, which seems likely at this point, that they could once again find themselves in the play-in. Depending on health during the play-in games, they certainly could come up short in a tough matchup and find themselves at home come postseason time, similarly to 2022.

Tier 4: How Do They Keep Doing This?

Miami Heat

On paper, they have no business being true contenders, but they stand in a tier on their own because, year after year, they somehow find a way to be in the mix. They don’t have enough talent to be viewed as legit contender going into the season, but their track record for doing more with less and knocking off top teams is too impressive to put them any lower than this. So, for now, they loom as a dark horse candidate to contend, as they somehow do every year.

7. Miami Heat

Projected Rotation

G - Kyle Lowry / Josh Richardson

G - Tyler Herro (58) / Duncan Robinson

F - Jimmy Butler (9) / Jaime Jaquez Jr.

F - Caleb Martin / Nikola Jovic

C - Bam Adebayo (24) / Kevin Love

• Read The Heat Preview

  Season Outlook

  The Miami Heat have had one of the strangest four-year runs we have seen in a while. Since Jimmy Butler joined the team as a free agent back in the summer of 2019, Miami has made the Finals twice and came within one bucket of making it a third time — losing in game 7 of the ECF in 2022. In that span, the’ve gone a combined 5-2 in playoff series against the Bucks, Celtics, and 76ers — the three other perennial contenders in the East over that span. However, they’ve only won 45 or more games or even secured a top-four seed in the conference one single time over that span, as they were the 5 seed and 8 seed in their two Finals runs. They have heavily relied on doing more with less, including getting major contributions over the years from guys like Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, P.J. Tucker, Caleb Martin, Dewayne Dedmon, and Haywood Highsmith, all of whom were undrafted players.

  After flirting with the idea of a Bradley Beal trade, the Heat smartly decided to wait for a bigger fish to become available, until one finally did in Damian Lillard. Miami was the presumed favorite to land Dame basically all offseason long, as Lillard and his agent all but publicly came out and said that the Heat were the only franchise he wanted to play for, and even went as far as to hint that he would consider not reporting if he was dealt anywhere else. With that said, Miami reportedly played hard ball, refusing to offer up their best package, and as a result, lost out on Dame entirely (also potentially due in part to Joe Cronin’s pettiness). Because the Heat had all their eggs in that basket, they were handcuffed and therefore unable to make any other major moves for months, and in the process, they saw Strus and Vincent leave in free agency for more money elsewhere. To replace those guys, they only added Josh Richardson, Thomas Bryant, and a rookie, Jaime Jaquez Jr. A team that was already very thin on talent is looking even thinner on paper than they did a year ago. They still have two all-stars in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, as well as a 23-year-old Tyler Herro who has been a 20+ PPG guy and still is improving as a player, but after that, there aren’t many guarantees. Kyle Lowry (37 years old) and Kevin Love (35) both showed significant decline last season and Lowry’s handcuff (Gabe Vincent) is no longer on the team. Guys like Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin had fantastic moments for them in the postseason last year (especially Martin in the ECF), but asking them to replicate that across an entire season just isn’t realistic, as we’ve seen Robinson completely fall out of the rotation at times for his defensive liabilities and Martin has never even averaged double digit points in a season before. After that, they brought in Josh Richardson to replace Vincent and/or Strus and Thomas Bryant to replace Cody Zeller. Richardson has been on 6 teams in 5 seasons and Bryant couldn’t find any minutes in either L.A. or Denver last season, so not exactly the most inspiring additions. With all that said, the Heat are going to be majorly reliant on guys like Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic to be significant contributors this year if they want to be able to replicate what they did last postseason, which is likely an unrealistic ask for a rookie and 20-year-old second year player — guys with only 15 career games combined to their names.

  Even with all of those factors working against them, the Heat somehow always find a way to make it work. All of these concerns would be fair and reasonable criticisms for any of Miami’s teams coming into the past three years, yet they keep finding guys to produce and play their best ball when it matters most. Normally it would be crazy to just assume that guys like Jovic, Jaquez, and Haywood Highsmith will step right into elevated roles seamlessly and produce, but Miami seems to be the exception. Additionally, the Strus and Vincent losses may be overblown if you look at how they’ve actually produced over the past few years. Vincent has shot below 40% from the field for his career in both the regular and postseason, and is only 33.9% from three as well. And while Strus did have a great shooting year during the 2021-22 season (41% from three), he has shot only 34.7% over the rest of his career combined and only 32.5% from three for his postseason career. With that said, it’s fair to wonder if these guys are truly high impact players or if Miami’s system helped make them appear that way. Josh Richardson should absolutely be able to replicate most of what they are losing from those two guys, as he is a 36.5% career shooter from three, is a better defender than both, and had the best seasons of his career in Miami’s system during his first stint with the team from 2015-2019. Regardless of the role players they’ve had, as long as they have Jimmy and Bam healthy, they’ll be a sure thing to be good defensively, as they’ve been 11th or better in defensive rating every season since Butler arrived in Miami. On the offensive end, we know the system will help get the best out of their role guys, but their ceiling here will be determined by the development of Herro and Bam. Can Herro continue to up his efficiency and become more of a consistent go-to guy and can Bam refine his game with more polished offensive moves and shot creation? If the answer is yes for either of those, it will open up a whole new aspect to what they can be on that end of the court.

  Erik Spoelstra has been a wizard for this team and has gotten every single ounce of potential out of what they’ve had. Between having the best coach in the NBA, a nearly guaranteed top 10 defense, a proven track record in knocking off the top contenders in the East, and a continued ability to get the most out of their guys and find production in unheralded players — it is fair to blindly respect what the Heat can be. Despite a lackluster offseason and questionable talent across the roster, they almost certainly deserve the benefit of the doubt that they’ll figure out a way to make it work. Looking at this team on paper, everything would tell you that they are a low-end playoff team with no shot to contend, but I’m not going to be the one to underestimate and count this team out until we see it happen. Even if they aren’t a top seed, consider them a real dark horse contender in the East with a legit shot to knock off Boston or Milwaukee if they were to face them. But as we’ve seen in their two recent Finals appearances, their talent deficiency can only take them so far, so they won’t be able to hang with the top dogs in the West. With that in mind, thinking this team is a championship team as currently constructed is not realistic.

  Team Ceiling

  With a clear top-two teams in the East with Boston and Milwaukee, there is definitely opportunity to slot in right after them as the three or four seed in the standings, and if all goes well for Miami, they are a prime candidate to do so. Come playoff time, this team has proven they can knock off the best teams in the East, and so they truly have a shot against anyone in the Eastern Conference. Winning the whole thing feels like a stretch though, so another miraculous Finals run that falls short is probably where this team maxes out.

  Team Floor

  This team was two minutes away from missing the playoffs all together last season, so a play-in spot is definitely in play, and if they aren’t careful, that destiny could come to fruition this season. In a worst case scenario, Miami could fall short of the postseason entirely by way of losing in the play-in.

Tier 3: Age and Health Permitting

Golden State Warriors

Los Angeles Lakers

These teams have been there and done that. They are led by aging stars with multiple championships to their names. The problem is, this version of the team and/or players is just not what is once was. Both injuries and noticeable declines have led to mixed results over the past few seasons, and unfortunately at this point, we just don’t know what we’re getting from a health and age perspective. These teams have the talent and track record to be Finals contenders once again, but those question marks are real, so this is as high as they’ll climb.

6. Golden State Warriors

Projected Rotation

G - Chris Paul (54) / Gary Payton II

G - Steph Curry (3) / Moses Moody

F - Klay Thompson (66) / Jonathan Kuminga

F - Andrew Wiggins (49) / Dario Saric

C - Draymond Green* (40) / Kevon Looney

*Will miss start to season due to injury

• Read The Warriors Preview

  Season Outlook

  After winning their fourth NBA Championship with their core of Steph, Klay, and Draymond in 2022, the Warriors followed it up with a strange season of mediocrity. They were 10-10 after 20 games, 20-20 after 40 games, and 30-30 after 60 games before finishing the season 44-38 as the 6 seed in the West. This was the first time we’ve seen this core finish with a seed that low in the playoffs, as they had either been a top-three seed or missed the playoffs entirely in every season since their first ring back in 2015. A lot of their struggles could be boiled down to the preseason drama created by the Draymond Green punch of Jordan Poole, and as a result, the Warriors shipped out Poole to Washington for pennies on the dollar compared to what his value would have been just one year ago.

  With Poole now gone, the Warriors brought in a familiar face — one they are more accustomed to lacing it up against rather than with, and that’s Chris Paul. They now have 6 guys for 5 spots, so it will be interesting to see who comes off the bench, whether they play small with Draymond at the five and Looney coming off the bench or bring CP3 off the bench to run the second unit (I would go with the latter). We won’t know right away because Draymond is set to miss the start of the season with an injury he sustained in training camp. That aside, there are also a lot of reasons to believe the Warriors can and will bounce back from their mediocrity of last season. For one, Andrew Wiggins played only 37 games last season, as he was away from the team for personal reasons, and we saw how important he is to this team during their 2022 title run. Their defense also took a huge step back last year, which likely was due in part to Draymond toning it down a bit in an effort to gain back the credibility of his teammates after the punch. As a result, he was less vocal and did not hold his teammates as accountable as he normally does on the defensive end. Additionally, the Warriors appear to have moved away from the “two timelines” approach and seem committed to maximizing what they have left with their aging core. They moved on from Jordan Poole and James Wiseman, both of whom were wildly inconsistent and often a detriment to the team on the court, and have instead invested in veterans like Chris Paul, Gary Payton II, Dario Saric, and Corey Joseph — a model much more similar to their 2022 team when they had Payton, Otto Porter, and Nemanja Bjelica getting most of the bench minutes. But the biggest reason the Warriors should feel good is because, despite being nearly 36, Steph doesn’t appear to be declining anytime soon. He has had two of his three most prolific scoring seasons (32.0 and 29.4 PPG) over the past three seasons, including a heroic 50-point game 7 vs. the Kings in the postseason last year, carrying them to the second round.

  It is easy to make excuses for why the Warriors might have had their down year last year, but there is an equally strong argument to be made that they will replicate their inconsistencies next year as well. Steph is obviously their best player but Draymond might be their most important one, particularly defensively, and he is already set to miss the start of the season due to injury. Without him, they will take a major hit defensively and have much more limited lineup flexibility. Additionally, Klay Thompson had some very concerning moments last season. While he did shoot it well from deep in the regular season, he’s shot only 43.4% from the field over the past two seasons, which are two of the three worst shooting years of his entire career. Despite his lower efficiency, he is still given the same green light offensively, which can lead to sporadic shots that really hurt them offensively. Even worse, he looks like he’s lost a full step defensively. Once an all-defense caliber player, he now looks like a liability on that end. Also, the Chris Paul fit is still a huge unknown. Is he going to be okay coming off the bench? Can the Warriors survive defensively playing Paul, Curry, and Klay at once? (I think not). And how will his ball dominant style fit in with the Warriors ball movement heavy, free flowing offense? These are all fair questions. On top of that, they only have one player on the entire roster 6’10” or taller, and it’s Dario Saric, — a good player, but not someone who can be relied on as a full time five.

  Ultimately, because the Warriors have Steph Curry on offense and Draymond Green anchoring their defense, they are always going to have a punchers chance of contending. They are still a very good team with a really good top-6 players and plenty of competent role players behind them — including a few young guys in Moody, Kuminga, and Brandin Podziemski that could make a huge difference if they break out (seriously, watch out for Podz). They have championship pedigree and more experience than any single team in the league. With that said, there are real questions about if their core, outside of Steph, is still good enough to make a deep run, so consider them a Western Conference contender without championship upside.

  Team Ceiling

  If everything clicks for the Warriors and they pick right back up where they left off in 2022, then a top 2-3 seed definitely is in play for them, with a chance they could even win the West if the matchups broke in their favor. However, I don’t think Steph has the requisite supporting cast to knock off the top teams in the East, and even Denver and Phoenix will be tough matchups. With that said, I think winning title number five feels a bit unrealistic for this team, and in an absolute best case, they feel like a Finals team that falls short.

  Team Floor

  With Draymond already hurt, an injury to Steph would be detrimental to this team. If that happened, then they could easily flirt with a play-in spot and find themselves with a really tough path in the postseason. If they do finish with a lower seed and draw the wrong matchup, a first round exit can’t be ruled out.

5. Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Rotation

G - D’Angelo Russell / Gabe Vincent

G - Austin Reaves (59) / Max Christie

F - LeBron James (11) / Taurean Prince

F - Jarred Vanderbilt / Rui Hachimura

C - Anthony Davis (13) / Christian Wood

• Read The Lakers Preview

  Season Outlook

  Since LeBron came to L.A. back in 2018, the Lakers have experienced just about every sort of result you could think of. They’ve won a championship, they’ve lost in the Western Conference Finals, they’ve lost in the first round, they’ve been a play-in team, and they’ve missed the playoffs and the play-in altogether. This mixed bag of results has been due to a mix of injuries, poor roster construction, and bad chemistry fits, and last year was a perfect example of that. The 2022-23 Lakers started the season 2-10 and were on the outside looking in on the playoff picture for nearly the entire season, but after a barrage of midseason trades, most notably the departure of Russell Westbrook, the Lakers finished the season very strong. They had the number one defense and the best record in the Western Conference post-deadline, and were able to ride that hot streak all the way to the Western Conference Finals before falling to the eventual champion Nuggets.

  Unlike a lot of other prospective contenders, the Lakers did not make any major moves this offseason, and instead opted to bring back all their main guys — most notably D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Rui Hachimura. After a couple seasons with massive turnover, they decided to roll with continuity in an attempt to ride that postseason momentum into this year and bank on their second half last year not being a fluke. And that makes sense, because their run certainly did not look like it was an accident, largely due in part to AD’s pure dominance defensively. In the postseason, he averaged an unfathomable 4.5 stocks (steals + blocks) and led the entire postseason field in every major defensive metric — including blocks, defensive rating, and defensive win shares. Perhaps the biggest difference maker for the Lakers was the emergence of Austin Reaves, as there were times last season where Reaves looked like the best offensive initiator on the team. He is a great shooter, is unbelievably efficient, can handle the ball like a point guard, and has shown an impressive ability as a shot-creator for both himself and others. On top of that, the Lakers added Gabe Vincent and Christian Wood — Vincent who brings playoff experience, defensive toughness, and a steady alternative to Russell at the lead guard position, and Wood who is as good a roll man and scoring big off the bench as we have in the league today. While LeBron did show some signs of decline last postseason, it’s fair to wonder if that was truly a decline or if his midseason injury was still lingering. Regardless, he is still a bonafide superstar and has as big an impact offensively as anyone in the league outside of maybe Jokic, and together he and AD are still both undoubted top 15 players in the league.

  We saw firsthand last postseason how good a fully-healthy Lakers team can be, but that is often the big issue for this team — health. Anthony Davis has played an average of only 44 games per season over the past three years, while LeBron has averaged only 52 per year in that same span. There’s a reason they haven’t finished higher than the 7 seed since their 2020 championship season, and if they don’t get at least 60+ games out of both of those two, then it’s going to be tough for them to secure a top four seed in a competitive Western Conference. At this point, until we see them both make it through a full season healthy, then I think it is safe to assume that both of them will likely miss their annual 25+ games throughout the season. With that said, it could be an uphill battle come playoff time if they are closer to the play-in than the top of the conference, as they have been in recent years. Additionally, LeBron showed his first real signs of a potential decline last season, particularly in the playoffs. His defensive effort has been spotty at best in recent years, he shot an abysmal 26.4% from three in the postseason, and he more often than ever settles for bad, long range jump shots, rather than taking the ball to the basket. The Lakers have had some real half-court scoring issues down the stretch of games in recent years largely due to this potential slight decline from LeBron and AD’s head-scratching offensive inconsistencies — highlighted by his postseason, where he had consecutive 20-point games only three times across 16 playoff games, as well as five games of 40% or worse shooting.

  The Lakers are a very good team that has a top-two rivaling anyone, a third option with massive upside in Reaves, and are a team that can win games with their defense alone. Their ceiling is close to the other top contenders in the league, but there are just too many things that have to go right that just haven’t gone right in recent years for them in order to be legit contenders. They’ve put all their eggs in the basket of a fragile, inconsistent big man and a will-be 39-year-old to carry them offensively, and I’m not convinced they have the offensive firepower after those guys to hang around with the big dogs. The almost certainty of injuries will likely hurt their spot in the standings, and once in the postseason, I’m not sure AD and LeBron can put together another deep playoff run without breaking down. Consider them a real contender to make a run in the West, but winning the whole thing feels a bit unrealistic for this group.

  Team Ceiling

  If LeBron and AD can stay *mostly* healthy during the season, then a top 2-3 seed definitely feels in play for them, and another run to the WCF, or even the Finals, certainly isn’t out of the question. However, I don’t see them having the firepower to knock off either Milwaukee or Boston, and I think it would take a lot to beat Denver or Phoenix as well, so I think winning a title would be a lofty goal, and they likely max out as a Finals team that falls short.

  Team Floor

  Injuries could completely ruin their season, as they have in the past. If AD and LeBron miss major time, then they could easily fall back into the play-in once again, and there are no promises if you’re coming into the postseason as a 7 or 8 seed, likely against a strong team like Denver or Phoenix. With that said, a first round exit is definitely in play.

Tier 2: True Threats to Steal the Larry O’Brien

Phoenix Suns

Milwaukee Bucks

Boston Celtics

These teams are 100% legitimate contenders. They have top-10-player-level talent, 3+ guys that could make an all-star team, and have been a part of some legitimately great playoff battles — having each made a Finals over the past three years. If we are going to see a new NBA champion this seasons, odds are extremely high that it comes from this group of teams.

4. Phoenix Suns

Projected Rotation

G - Devin Booker (8) / Eric Gordon

G - Bradley Beal (42) / Grayson Allen

F - Josh Okogie / Keita Bates-Diop

F - Kevin Durant (5) / Yuta Watanbe

C - Jusuf Nurkic / Drew Eubanks

• Read The Suns Preview

  Season Outlook

  After a full decade without a single playoff appearance, the Suns now own the NBA’s best record over the past three years (160-76) by a full five games, including an NBA Finals appearance in 2021 and a franchise-best 64 wins in 2022. Despite all of that success, this team comes into the 2023-24 season with as much roster turnover over in the past year as any team in the entire NBA, with Devin Booker being the only player remaining on the team from their 2021 Finals run. Last year was a bit of a roller coaster for the Suns. They decided to make a big splash by acquiring Kevin Durant at the trade deadline while he was still injured, and when he finally returned, he re-injured himself almost immediately. Because of that, he only played 8 regular season games for Phoenix, which really limited the reps this group could get together. That, paired with over a month long stretch without Devin Booker through December and January, led to a massive lack of continuity for this Suns team, and they ultimately fell short to Denver in the second round.

  Since then, Phoenix made another big splash by trading for Bradley Beal this offseason. In just the past 9 months, we’ve seen mainstays such as Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Cam Johnson all be shipped out of town, along with basically all of their draft assets. With that, the Suns are officially all in on winning now with their big three of KD, Booker, and Beal. That trio should be among the best in the league and will be absolutely lethal offensively, as we know that the KD-Booker duo has already proven to be nearly unguardable. Durant is coming off a season in which he averaged 29 points on inconceivable 56% / 40% / 92% shooting splits, and Booker on the other hand, put up Michael Jordan-esque numbers in the postseason, averaging nearly 34 PPG on 59% / 51% / 87% splits. While Beal is coming off consecutive “down” years for him (though, still 23+ PPG in both), that was as the number one option getting all the attention from defenses. We have said for years now that Beal would be best suited as a number two, and now we get to see him as the clear-cut number three. In that role, he should see a significant uptick in wide open catch-and-shoot opportunities — a contrast to the off-the-dribble shot creation he was forced to predominately do in Washington. Aside from their big three, the Ayton trade really helped solidify their depth as a real strength. Nurkic is a downgrade at center, but Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon bring the kind of consistent shot creation and downhill attacking that the Suns have not had off the bench in recent years. Those two are also knock down shooters and they added other nice pieces in Yuta Watanabe, Keita Bates-Diop, and Drew Eubanks.

  The biggest question mark for Phoenix will be their defense. Even if Nurkic is a comparable rim-protector to Ayton, the drop off between the two in defensive versatility is significant. Opposing teams will run pick-and-roll after pick-and-roll to get Nurkic switched out on the perimeter — a place we have seen him be a total liability in the past. He is slow footed on that end and just hasn’t been as impactful since coming back from his major injury a few years ago. Additionally, the Suns don’t really have any “lock down” defenders on the perimeter either. Josh Okogie is solid there, but we saw him get pretty neutralized in the postseason while trying to guard Jamal Muarry, and he did not have much impact at all in slowing him down. Allen, Bates-Diop, and Watanabe have all been decent guarding the perimeter at times, but Bates-Diop and Watanbe have not done it for good teams in high-leverage situations and Allen has been exposed in the postseason in the past with the Bucks. After that, they are going to be pretty reliant on Booker and Beal to contribute as impact defenders, which both have shown capable of at times (Beal early in his career and Booker in recent years), but that is a tall task to ask your 25 PPG scorers every single night.

  Ultimately, Phoenix’s offense is going to have potential to be all-time good, which should help them cruise through the regular season, even if their defense is in the bottom-half of the league. Their fate is really going to come down to how engaged guys like Beal, Booker, and Nurkic are on the defensive end of the court, but if anyone can get it out of this team, it’s Frank Vogel. Not only is he a championship head coach, but he has had a top 12 defense in 8 of his 11 seasons, as well as a top three defense in 5 separate seasons. If the Suns can even be in the 10-12 range defensively as a team, then they are as big a threat to win the title as anyone in the league, and their potent offense will give them a chance to knock off anyone.

  Team Ceiling

  The Suns have all the offensive firepower they could need to not only end the season atop the West standings, but also to make a deep run. If their defense can even be league average, then they’ll have a legitimate shot to win their first NBA Championship.

  Team Floor

  They should have enough scoring and talent to, at worst, bring home a top-6 seed in the West and avoid the play-in — even if one of KD, Beal, or Booker miss a bit of time. Come playoff time, their defense could certainly be the death of them, and they may run into a tough opponent in the second round like the Nuggets, Lakers, or Warriors. This could leave them getting bounced in the semi-finals for the third straight year.

3. Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Rotation

G - Damian Lillard (12) / Cameron Payne

G - Malik Beasley / Pat Connaughton

F - Khris Middleton (44) / MarJon Beauchamp

F - Giannis Antetokounmpo (2) / Jae Crowder

C - Brook Lopez (64) / Bobby Portis

• Read The Bucks Preview

  Season Outlook

  Since the Giannis-led Bucks broke out in 2018-19, Milwaukee has played at 50-win pace for all five seasons, including three years with 56 or more wins and the number one seed in the Eastern Conference. Despite the resounding regular season success, they have only one single NBA Finals appearance to show for it, including postseason exits in the second round or sooner in three of the past four years — often coming to clearly inferior teams, such as the 8-seeded Miami Heat just last season. With the clock seemingly ticking on Giannis’ time in Milwaukee, the Bucks had no choice but to continue to double down on going all in right now — and what better way to do that than making a huge move to acquire Damian Lillard.

  The Bucks now come into the year with not only a clear-cut top-two player in the world (and probably the best two-way player in the game) in Giannis, but now also have one of the most prolific and dynamic scoring guards of this generation to pair with him in Lillard. While the Bucks have been plenty fine offensively in the regular season, having finished in the top 8 in offensive rating in four of the past five years — come playoff time, they’ve really had their struggles. The addition of Lillard is exactly what the doctor ordered to alleviate those postseason offensive woes. They now go from a team that has struggled mightily to generate good shots in the half-court to a team with one of the absolute best half-court shot-creators, offensive initiators, and late-in-the-shot-clock guys in the entire league — a guy in Dame that just posted the highest non-Steph Curry True Shooting percentage for a guard in NBA history (min. 15 FGA). The Dame-Giannis pick-and-roll is going to be extremely deadly and will really make defenses pick their poison between a Giannis drive to the basket or an open jump shot for Lillard — two of the highest percentage shots in the league. That is not even to mention the trickle down this has on their offensive pecking order, as it will allow Khris Middleton to become the clear-cut third option, while taking a ton of pressure off of him as a ball-handler running the pick-and-roll and isolation scorer. Additionally, we know what the Bucks have been on the defensive end of the floor, having finished in the top four in defensive rating in three of the past five seasons, including two finishes as the best defense in the league. While the loss of Jrue Holiday is not insignificant on that end of the floor, a lot of their defensive success can be credited to the Brook Lopez and Giannis combination protecting the paint and anchoring that defense, as Giannis has already won a Defensive Player of the Year and Lopez finished in the top three for that award just last season.

  This new-look Bucks team doesn’t come without their concerns. The drop off on the defensive end from Holiday to Lillard is about as drastic as it comes, with Holiday being arguably the best defensive guard in the entire league and Lillard being among the worst. Dame has had a defensive rating above 120 over the past two years and only 2.3 DWS in the past four seasons combined — bottom of the league type numbers. Guarding elite guards in the league such as Devin Booker, Steph Curry, or even someone like Jamal Murray suddenly become a real issue. Additionally, while their top four players rival anyone in the league, the rest of their depth is questionable at best. While Portis has been great for them, it can be tough to play him alongside both Giannis and Lopez, limiting their lineup flexibility. Crowder, Payne, and Connaughton have all had previous playoff success, but they are all very streaky offensive players, and Crowder in particular looked very rusty last year after sitting out most of the season. After that, they are relying on the likes of MarJon Beauchamp and/or Andre Jackson to meaningfully contribute, which given their inexperience, is not at all a sure thing.

  Ultimately, the offensive boost they get in going from Holiday to Dame should be enough of an upgrade to offset the defensive shortcomings — especially given the defensive infrastructure they have with Giannis and Lopez on their front line, the type of defensive presences that Lillard has never had to support him on that end of the court throughout his career. Additionally, we just saw Denver win the championship playing only 7 men consistently, with an 8th man getting spot minutes, so assuming they can get just two of Crowder, Beauchamp, Connaughton, Payne, and Jackson to contribute, they should have the requisite depth to make it through a deep postseason run. At the end of the day, Milwaukee added a top 15 player and the best teammate Giannis has ever had to their roster, so let’s not overthink it — they are going to be extremely good. The Bucks should be viewed as co-favorites in the East with Boston, with as good a chance to win the NBA Finals as they’ve had in the Giannis era.

  Team Ceiling

  The Bucks have reloaded their roster with the most offensive firepower they’ve had in the Giannis era, and as a result, are serious threats to win the NBA championship this season.

  Team Floor

  In the regular season, having an in-his-prime Giannis gives you a very high floor, so as long as he is healthy, Milwaukee is at worst still likely a top-four seed in the East. Come postseason time, there is a clear-cut top-two in the East, so barring injuries, the Bucks will likely cruise to the Eastern Conference Finals before potentially falling short to Boston.

2. Boston Celtics

Projected Rotation

G - Jrue Holiday (33) / Payton Pritchard

G - Derrick White (71) / Jordan Walsh

F - Jaylen Brown (28) / Sam Hauser

F - Jayson Tatum (7) / Al Horford (68)

C - Kristaps Porzingis (51) / Luke Kornet

• Read The Celtics Preview

  Season Outlook

  The Celtics are coming off of a heartbreaking game 7 loss on their home court to the 8-seeded Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, and though they have made the ECF in 5 of the past 7 seasons, they’ve only managed to reach the Finals once in that span with no ring to show for it. With that in mind, they finally decided to make some big moves and shake up their roster, so this year’s team looks a little bit different than what Boston fans might be used to.

  Boston essentially swapped out the four-some of Marcus Smart, Robert Williams III, Malcolm Brogdon, and Grant Williams for Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis — a consolidation move that helps them majorly upgrade the top of the roster at the expense of some of their depth. These moves addressed the Celtics’ two biggest needs in recent years: 1) a reliable third option behind Brown and Tatum and 2) a legitimate ball-handler and table-setter on offense. Additionally, they were able to address both without making major concessions on defense, and should be able to maintain a comparably strong performance on that end of the floor. Holiday will bring everything that Marcus Smart provided to this team, but so much more. Smart is an elite, lock-down perimeter defenders and was the best playmaker they had on the team, but Holiday is equally as good on the defensive end as Smart, if not better, and is a massive upgrade as a playmaker and offensive initiator. Holiday also is on another planet from Smart as a shooter (39.5% from three the past three years for Holiday vs. 33.2% for Smart), and he has already proven he can be a legit top-three option on an NBA champion with the Bucks. That, paired with Porzinigis (a career 20 PPG scorer), gives Boston a significant upgrade offensively and it should take the kind of pressure off of Brown and Tatum as scorers that they just have not had since becoming all-star players. Add in truly elite role players in White and Horford as the fifth and sixth guys, and you have what is almost certainly the best group of six players that any team has in the league.

  With as great as the top of Boston’s roster looks, their 7-10 men are significantly worse than what they’ve been in recent years. After their top six, you’re left with Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Oshae Brissett, and their second round pick — Jordan Walsh. Pritchard and Hauser have been good shooters (career 40% and 42% from three, respectively), but Brissett is the only player on their bench (besides whoever does not start between White and Horford) that has even averaged 20 minutes per game in a season before. They are particularly thin in the front court, especially when you consider the fact that Horford is 37 years old and Porzingis has averaged only 44 games played per season over the past five years. If one of those two misses any time, they won’t have any sort of viable backup big, with Luke Kornet being the only other player 6’10” or taller on the roster. They obviously will not have the scoring spark off the bench they got last year from Brogdon (the reigning Sixth Man of the Year) or the elite rim-protection and defensive presence they had with Rob Williams, both of which will definitely be missed and are not insignificant losses.

  With that said, Boston still has a move to make if they need, with picks and other assets still to trade. Additionally, the Williams and Brogdon losses aren’t nearly as bad when you consider that Williams has never even played more than 52 games in a season and Brogdon broke down in last year’s postseason anyways, so those two were risks to begin with in terms of health. The additions that Boston has made should more than make up for and offset the losses they had, and on top of that, they finally have a legitimate coaching staff. And perhaps most importantly of all, Jayson Tatum continues to ascend and is one year closer to reaching his prime. They addressed their biggest needs and are gearing up to take the best shot they’ve had at a title with this current core. They should be viewed as co-favorites in the East with Milwaukee, with as good a chance to win the NBA Finals as anyone.

  Team Ceiling

  The Celtics have all the pieces to not only have the best record in the East, but also win the NBA championship this season, and it should surprise no one if they finally get over the hump and win the whole thing.

  Team Floor

  In the regular season, Boston has the combination of star power and depth in their top 6 that, barring a major injury to Tatum, they likely would still be a top-four seed in the East even in the worst case scenario. Come postseason time, there is a clear-cut top-two in the East, so once again barring injuries, the Celtics will likely cruise to the Eastern Conference Finals, before potentially falling short to Milwaukee.

Tier 1: The Favorites

Denver Nuggets

The defending champs, led by the best player in the world, give us no reason to think they can’t repeat this year, and until we see a new team prove to us why that should change, they deserve the respect of going into this season as the favorites.

1. Denver Nuggets

Projected Rotation

G - Jamal Murray (30) / Reggie Jackson

G - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (93) / Christian Braun

F - Michael Porter Jr. (65) / Justin Holiday

F - Aaron Gordon (50) / Peyton Watson

C - Nikola Jokic (1) / Zeke Nnaji

• Read The Nuggets Preview

  Season Outlook

  After enduring years of playoff battle scars, the Nuggets finally got over the hump last season and brought home the franchise’s first NBA Championship. The Jokic-Murray core has now played at 50-win pace or better and secured a top-three seed in the West in four of the last five seasons. The one season they failed to reach those benchmarks was a year in which Jamal Murray missed the entire season recovering from his ACL injury, and even with that, they still finished with 48 wins and a top-6 seed in the loaded West — no small feat.

  This year, the Nuggets bring back their entire starting lineup from last season — a lineup that had the best net-rating in the entire NBA (min. 350 minutes played), with a ridiculous +13.1. They have the best player in the world in Jokic, a co-star that peaks at the best possible time each year in Murray, elite level role players in Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr., and one of the league’s best 3-and-D guys in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The Jokic and Murray pick-and-roll continues to be the NBA’s deadliest two-man game, and there’s no reason to think that that combo, paired with high-level shooters flanked on the wings and Gordon camped in the dunker spot, won’t continue to lead to Denver owning one of the NBA’s most dominant offenses. Their biggest question mark last season was defense, where they were league average at only 15th in the NBA, but they showed a drastic improvement on that end during the postseason, ranking third among all playoff teams during their run in defensive efficiency — allowing 3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did in the regular season.

  Despite retaining their top five guys, they were not so successful in running it back with their bench unit. Bruce Brown got a bag from Indiana and Jeff Green departed for Houston, both of whom were major parts of Denver’s success last season. The Nuggets weren’t a necessarily deep team last season even with those guys, as they truly only played a 7.5 man rotation last postseason. Green and Brown were 6th and 7th on the team in minutes during their postseason run, as well as the only two bench players to play all 20 playoff games or average 15+ minutes per game. What did they do to replace these guys? Well, not much. Their biggest free agent acquisition was Justin Holiday (a 32.2% three point shooter last year) and the only other noteworthy additions were a trio of rookies — Jalen Pickett, Julian Strawther, and Hunter Tyson, none of whom were top-20 prospects coming into the draft. The Nuggets will be majorly reliant on at least one of those three guys turning into a rotation player, as well as guys like Peyton Watson and Christian Braun to step up, both of whom showed flashes last year, but lacked consistency. Additionally, DeAndre Jordan and Reggie Jackson are members of their bench as well, but both appeared washed last season — completely falling out of the rotation in the postseason last year.

  Despite that unproven bench unit, Denver should feel confident. They have as good of a track record as anyone in the league with player development, and odds are high that one of those young guys can make an immediate impact. Additionally, Denver has picks and assets to move for a potential midseason upgrade, if needed. But regardless of any move they make, their starting five rivals anyone in the league and they are led by the best player in the world. It probably says something about how good of a team this is that the biggest criticism you could find is the departure of their 6th and 7th men. With major moves made by other contenders near the top of the league, there is certainly an argument to be made that Denver is not as talented across the board as teams like the Bucks, Suns, or Celtics, but given the continuity of their core, as well as the respect for them as defending champions that return the best lineup in basketball, they have earned the right to go into the season as the favorite to win it all.

  Team Ceiling

  The Nuggets could not only compete for the best record in the West once again, but could absolutely repeat as NBA Champions. Considering the core they have locked up, then if they did, it would spark legitimate conversation of this being a dynasty in the making.

  Team Floor

  Their regular season floor will remain relatively high, so barring injuries, a Jokic-led team should be a lock for a top-four seed. Though, come playoff time, they could definitely run into a tough matchup versus a team like the Suns, Warriors, or Lakers in the second round, and it’s on the table that they might find themselves to be the third straight defending champ to get bounced in the semi-finals.